South Asia: Widespread water surpluses will persist

21 February 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through October indicates widespread water surpluses in India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Pakistan.

Across the breadth of India from Gujarat through the center of the nation, anomalies will be moderate to severe, as will surpluses in the eastern states of West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Odisha. In southern India, surpluses will be more intense, ranging from severe to exceptional in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

In the Gangetic Plain, moderate surpluses are forecast in Uttar Pradesh, but the northern states of Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir can expect severe to exceptional anomalies. Deficits are forecast in India’s Far Northeast, ranging from moderate to exceptional.

Surpluses of varying intensity are expected throughout Sri Lanka. In Nepal, surpluses will be widespread, moderate overall but extreme to exceptional in the center of the county on the Gandaki River reaching into Bihar, India to join the Ganges River where surpluses will eventually moderate in the lower reaches of the Ganges.

Pakistan’s north, central region, and southeast will see surpluses, exceptional in eastern Balochistan. Surpluses in central Pakistan will reach across the border into Kandahar Province in Afghanistan where anomalies will be extreme to exceptional, moderating to the north near Kabul. Deficits are forecast in northern and western Afghanistan, and a few pockets in Pakistan’s western corner.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through April indicates surpluses of varying intensity in many regions. In India, surpluses are expected in the Far North, Haryana, and eastern Rajasthan; along the Ganges in Uttar Pradesh; in Maharashtra and Telangana; throughout the south; and in West Bengal and Jharkhand in the east. Exceptional anomalies will be particularly widespread in Karnataka and Kerala. Transitions (pink/purple) are expected in Gujarat as deficits emerge, and northern Tamil Nadu will also be in transition. Deficits will increase in the Far Northeast. Surpluses in Sri Lanka will downgrade. Widespread, intense surpluses are forecast in Nepal reaching into Bhutan, while Bangladesh will experience moderate to extreme anomalies. Surpluses, including exceptional surpluses, are expected throughout much of Pakistan though anomalies in the north will downgrade and transitions are forecast in the southeast. In Afghanistan, intense surpluses will persist in Kandahar Province and a pocket near Mazar-e Sharif, and moderate surpluses will increase around Kabul.

From May through July, surpluses will retreat from Bangladesh, eastern Nepal, and Bhutan. Deficits will increase in India’s Far Northeast. Surpluses along much of India’s west coast will retreat but moderate to exceptional anomalies will persist in the south. Moderate surpluses are forecast from eastern Gujarat into central India, and in the east in Odisha and its northern neighbors. In the Far North, Haryana, and eastern Rajasthan, surpluses will shrink. Surpluses will also shrink in northern Pakistan and around Kabul, persisting in central Pakistan and Kandahar Province, though transitions are also expected. Intense surpluses will re-emerge in southeastern Pakistan including Karachi.

The forecast for the final months – August through October – indicates the emergence of widespread, moderate surpluses in India. Deficits in the Far Northeast will shrink. Transitions and surpluses are forecast from Pakistan into Afghanistan, and deficits will increase in northern and western Afghanistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Early February brought unusually heavy snowfall to Himalayan districts in western Nepal. Several major highways in Sudurpashchim Province were blocked and flights to many mountain communities were canceled.

Even relatively lower elevations received some snow. While Punakha, considered Bhutan’s winter capital, saw barely two inches (five centimeters), it was the first snowfall in 64 years.

Heavy snowfall in northeastern Afghanistan triggered an avalanche at a remote mountain pass into Pakistan, leaving 15 dead with more missing.

Flooding in the Western Ghats of India has left three people dead and has destroyed bridges, submerged villages, and inundated cropland in Karnataka.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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