East Asia: Water surplus will persist in NE China & Yellow River

22 February 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through October indicates widespread severe to exceptional water surpluses in Northeast China from the Bohai Sea to the Russian border. This wide path of surplus will downgrade to the south through Beijing. In the vast Yellow River (Huang He) Watershed, surpluses of varying intensity are forecast.

Western Inner Mongolia will experience exceptional deficits. In Xinjiang, deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast in the Tarim Basin along with transitional conditions (pink/purple). Surpluses are expected in western Tibet (Xizang) and will include exceptional surpluses on the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River.

Near-normal conditions are forecast for much of southern China. Some surpluses are expected in southeastern Guizhou and eastern Yunnan, and a pocket of severe deficit in northern Yunnan. In central China, a pocket of deficit is forecast in Hubei.

In Mongolia, deficits will be intense in the western Gobi Desert and pockets of deficit are expected in the lakes region of the nation’s northwest. Surpluses are forecast surrounding Lake Khovsgol in the north and in the central Hangayn Mountains and the central Hentiyn Mountains.

Moderate surpluses will be widespread in North Korea and moderate deficits are forecast around Kyoto, Japan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through April indicates persistent, widespread, extreme to exceptional surpluses from Northeast China through the North China Plain and much of the vast Yellow River Basin. Moderate deficits will emerge from western Inner Mongolia through northern Qinghai into Xinjiang. Between the Yellow and Yangtze River, deficits will emerge in the Huai River Watershed. In the Yangtze region, surpluses will be extreme to exceptional between Chongqing and Chengdu north of the river and severe in the Gorges. Further south, extreme to exceptional surpluses are forecast from Guzhou into Guangxi, and deficits in Southeast China will nearly disappear. Mixed conditions are expected in Yunnan and widespread surpluses in Tibet.

On the Korean Peninsula, surpluses will downgrade but remain widespread in the north, and moderate to severe deficits will emerge throughout the south. Moderate deficits will also emerge in southern Japan. In Mongolia, surpluses are forecast in the north, deficits and transitional conditions in the Gobi Desert.

From May through July, surpluses, while shrinking considerably, will remain widespread in Northeast China and the Yellow River Basin and moderate surpluses will emerge on the Ordos Loop. Deficits will intensify in western Inner Mongolia and a pocket southeast of Urumqi in Xinjiang. In southern China, surpluses will retreat from Guizhou but increase in Yunnan, and deficits in Yunnan will shrink. Near-normal conditions are expected in Japan and Korea with some surpluses near Pyongyang.

The forecast for the final three months – August through October – indicates lingering pockets of surplus in Northeast China and parts of the Yellow River Watershed, widespread surpluses in western Tibet, and deficits in western Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. Moderate surpluses will emerge in central Korea and moderate deficits in Honshu, Japan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
To deliver one of the most essential ingredients to the 2022 Olympic Winter Games, Beijing had to rely on man-made snow to sculpt the nearby slopes. But mid-way through the celebrated athletic competitions in February, skiers were challenged by a blizzard of the natural stuff, intensive enough to postpone some events. The snowstorm created near white-out conditions described by elite competitors as “brutal.”

North China wasn’t the only place to receive snowfall that impacted activities. In early February, the busy airport in Nanjiang in East China’s Jiangsu Province canceled 261 flights and suspended 224 others, and later in the month Kunming Changshui International Airport in the southwestern province of Yunnan canceled 184 flights after snow and icy conditions threatened air travel.

A snowstorm in Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido dumped over a foot (30 cm) on the capital, Sapporo. One death was reported due to poor road conditions, 198 flights were canceled, and rail service was suspended on 700 train routes.

In the prior month, however, South Korea saw its driest January in 50 years.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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