Europe: Intense water deficits in Portugal, Spain, Hungary

17 March 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through November indicates widespread water deficits on the Iberian Peninsula and in France. Deficits will be exceptional throughout most of Portugal and western Spain. In France, deficits will be especially intense in the Vienne River region, a tributary of the Loire.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in northern Italy, along the Tyrrhenian Coast, in the southern Apennines, and in Sicily and Sardinia. Intense surpluses are expected in Umbria, Italy and the Pindus Mountains in Greece.

Deficits are forecast for many pockets of Central Europe, notably exceptional deficits in southern Belgium and deficits of varying intensity in north-central Germany, eastern Czech Republic, and throughout Hungary. Scattered, small pockets of moderate surplus are also expected. In Eastern Europe, deficits will be widespread in Ukraine and Moldova and will be severe to extreme west of Kyiv and in the south, and exceptional in southern Moldova including the capital, Chisinau. Large pockets of moderate deficit are predicted in Romania. Moderate surpluses are forecast in Wales, Northern England, Scotland, and pockets of Ireland.

In Northern Europe, intense surpluses are forecast in Denmark, central Iceland, and Arctic Norway, and in European Russia in Murmansk, the Middle Volga River region, and Vychegda Lowland. Areas expected to have surpluses of lesser intensity include southern Norbotten in Sweden and the Svernaya Dvina River Watershed in northern Russia. Exceptional water deficits are forecast in central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed and Estonia, and deficits of varying intensity in Latvia. Moderate deficits are expected near Moscow and in Kursk Oblast, Russia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will increase as surpluses in Central Europe and the Balkans decrease. Widespread deficits of varying intensity are forecast for the Iberian Peninsula and France including exceptional anomalies in Portugal’s northern half and western Spain. Deficits will also intensify north of Barcelona. In France, deficits will be exceptional in the Vienne River region, a tributary of the Loire, and in Normandy, and nearly as intense in the Riviera. Italy, too, can expect deficits, though surpluses are expected in eastern Umbria. Deficits will be intense throughout Hungary, reaching north through western Slovakia into Czech Republic, and will also be intense in southern Belgium. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in Germany, southwestern Poland, much of Ukraine’s southern half, and Moldova. Mixed conditions are forecast in the Balkans and moderate surpluses in the Swiss Alps. Surpluses are forecast in northern European Russia, Finland, northern Sweden, Norway, central Iceland, Wales, Northern England, Scotland, and Ireland. Surplus anomalies will be intense in Denmark and Iceland, and in Murmansk, the Vychegda Lowland, and Middle Volga River regions of Russia.

From June through August, surpluses will shrink considerably as deficits increase. Notably, deficits will emerge in eastern Spain, Norway, eastern Europe, and Russia. Though moderate overall, intense anomalies are forecast on the Iberian Peninsula, Sicily, Estonia, and central Sweden. Areas of surplus include Iceland, pockets of Denmark, Murmansk, and the Vychegda Lowland and Middle Volga in Russia.

The forecast for September through November indicates lingering, intense deficits in Estonia and central Sweden, and relatively mild deficits in France, Germany, and western Ukraine. Surpluses will emerge in southern Ireland and persist in Iceland and several aforementioned regions of Russia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As of 5 March, 95.5 percent of Portugal is in severe to extreme drought. Water rationing has been introduced in Algarve in southern Portugal, restricting irrigation of green spaces and requiring wastewater use for non-potable water needs. Portugal has already limited hydropower production generated from its reservoirs. Reduced fodder has forced cattle ranchers in the Coimbra region on the central Pacific Coast to purchase feed. And some cereal crops have been irretrievably lost according to the spokesperson for a farmers’ advocacy group.

Indre, a departmental division of Centre-Val de Loire in France, is experiencing a rainfall deficit of 60 percent for the start of the year, inciting fears of a repetition of drought conditions in 2019 that led to drinking water shortages and wildfires. Degradation due to drought has taken a toll on the biological diversity in local rivers with the disappearance of salmon on the Creuse River, a tributary of the Vienne, and the threatened loss of brown trout in the region’s waterways.

Precipitation has been even worse in Hérault, a department in southern France on the Mediterranean that reports an 80 percent deficit. With the soil moisture index near record lows, grain farmers in the region are struggling to keep fields viable, battling the high cost of irrigation water sourced from the Bas-Rhône canal.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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