Africa: Water surplus to persist in Tanzania & Nigeria

21 March 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through November indicates widespread water deficits throughout the northwest from Mauritania through Algeria and Tunisia including many areas of exceptional deficit. Mixed conditions are expected in Libya and Egypt. The small coastal nations of westernmost Africa can expect moderate deficits.

Surpluses are forecast in the central and eastern Sahel, dipping south well into Nigeria and South Sudan. Anomalies will be exceptional around Lake Débo in the Inner Niger Delta of central Mali; in central Nigeria surrounding the capital, Abuja; and near the city of Kano in northern Nigeria. Surpluses are forecast along the Nile and Atbara Rivers in Sudan and will be widespread in southern Sudan and South Sudan, reaching into northern Uganda. Anomalies will extend into Eritrea and the Tigray and Afar regions of northern Ethiopia, while transitions (pink/purple) are expected in the Ethiopian Highlands.

In the Horn of Africa, deficits are forecast in Somaliland and southern Somalia. Transitional conditions along with exceptional surpluses are forecast for the Nugaal Valley.

Along the Gulf of Guinea, deficits are forecast through central and southern Cameroon, becoming exceptional in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon. In the heart of the continent, severe deficits are forecast in the Tshuapa River region of the Congo Basin in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Surpluses are expected in Brazzaville and Kinshasa in the west and along the Lukuga River in the east near Lake Tanganyika.

Widespread surpluses are expected in Tanzania, exceptional in the west. Intense deficits are predicted for northern and southeastern Mozambique. In Madagascar, deficits are expected along much of its western coast, exceptional in the central and southern extent. Deficits will be widespread in Angola though moderate overall.

Elsewhere, pockets of deficit are forecast in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and western Lesotho. Severe deficits are forecast in Eswatini, becoming more intense as they reach into South Africa towards Johannesburg. Some surpluses are also expected in pockets of the southern nations, particularly South Africa where areas of surplus include Western and Northern Cape and central Free State.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through May indicates deficits in the northwest, moderate overall but with exceptional pockets from eastern Mauritania through Niger. Mixed conditions are forecast in Libya and Egypt with surpluses in the north and intense deficits in the south. Sudan can expect deficits in its northern half, including intense anomalies, and surpluses in the southeast. In coastal West Africa, scattered surpluses are forecast from Guinea through Nigeria where anomalies will be widespread and exceptional from Abuja past Kano. Deficits, generally moderate, are predicted in Central Africa from Equatorial Guinea through northern DRC into southern Uganda. Deficits are also expected from southern Eritrea through Somaliland. Surpluses will be widespread in Tanzania, reaching into Zambia. Pockets of surplus are forecast in the Tete Sub-basin of the Zambezi River in Mozambique, southern Namibia, and South Africa, particularly Western Cape. Deficits are forecast in west-central Madagascar, from Mozambique’s coastal city of Beira west into Zimbabwe, and from Eswatini into South Africa.

The forecast for June through August indicates that exceptional deficits will increase in Morocco and Algeria but shrink elsewhere in the north. Surpluses are expected in a belt from Burkina Faso through Eritrea, becoming widespread in southern Sudan, South Sudan, and western Ethiopia where surpluses will be especially intense. Surpluses elsewhere include Somalia’s Nugaal region, northern Uganda, and much of Tanzania. Pockets of deficit are forecast in coastal West Africa, southern Cameroon, west-central Madagascar, and from Eswatini into South Africa.

In the final quarter – September through November – deficits will shrink in the north and surpluses will persist as in the prior forecast, increasing in Uganda and nearby, and emerging along the Nile in Egypt.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought in Somalia is affecting over 4 million people and humanitarian agencies warn that nearly half the nation’s children under the age of 5 could suffer acute malnutrition. Three consecutive seasons of insufficient rainfall have decimated crops and livestock. The UN Refugee Relief Agency is seeking US $157.5 million to help address the urgent needs of 2.9 million internally displaced persons as well as thousands of other refugees.

As of mid-February, precipitation in Morocco has averaged 64 percent less than normal. Ongoing drought has sent vegetable prices sky-rocketing with the price of tomatoes doubling in just a week. Protests have erupted in 40 cities including the capital, Rabat, as concerns over food and fuel prices and social justice issues rise.

With much of North Africa heavily dependent on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine, there is growing worry among nations like Morocco, Egypt, and Tunisia about availability and price of the staple grain since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, prompting comparison of recent protests to the Arab Spring of 2011 that was sparked by the rising cost of bread.

Drought in Uganda’s coffee growing regions sent the nation’s coffee exports plummeting by 20 percent in February. Uganda is Africa’s second-largest exporter of coffee after Ethiopia.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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