South Asia: Water deficits will increase in India’s Far NE

20 April 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through December indicates widespread water surpluses in central India and parts of the south from Gujarat to the Bay of Bengal and Madyha Pradesh through Karnataka. Surpluses will be moderate overall but severe in Maharashtra and exceptional in east-central Karnataka. Other areas of surplus include the far north, pockets in Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, and along the Gandak River in Bihar.

Moderate to severe deficits are expected in the Far Northeast and moderate deficits from northwestern Rajasthan into Punjab, and pockets in Tamil Nadu.

Moderate surpluses are forecast in parts of coastal Sri Lanka; surpluses in western Nepal, intense on the Gandak River; and near-normal conditions in Bangladesh. Pakistan’s forecast indicates pockets of moderate surplus in the north including Islamabad, deficits and transitional conditions (pink/purple) in the center of the nation, exceptional surpluses in Balochistan Province surrounding Quetta, and deficits in the southwest. Surpluses in Balochistan will reach into Kandahar Province in Afghanistan where anomalies will be extreme. Deficits are forecast elsewhere in Afghanistan including exceptional deficits in the southwest.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through June indicates that, while shrinking in southern India, surpluses will persist in many regions and will include intense anomalies in the far north, central Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan’s eastern corner, and pockets of southern Karnataka. Surpluses of generally lesser intensity are expected in southern Gujarat, Maharashtra and south into its southern neighbors, Bihar, and other pockets. Exceptional deficits will emerge in Punjab and Haryana and moderate deficits will increase in northern Rajasthan. Moderate to extreme deficits will increase in India’s Far Northeast. Deficits will increase in a pocket of northeastern Madhya Pradesh and will emerge in India’s southern tip as transitions occur.

Surpluses will downgrade in Nepal though remain widespread, but will shrink considerably in Bangladesh, persisting with moderate intensity in the region of the Lower Ganges’ tributaries. In Pakistan, surpluses are forecast in the far north, and deficits and transitional conditions in the remainder of the nation. Afghanistan can expect intense surpluses around Kandahar and deficits south of Herat and near Mazar-e Sharif.

From July through September, conditions will normalize in much of India’s northern half and in Bangladesh and eastern Nepal. Deficits are forecast in India’s Far Northeast and surpluses in Gujarat, Maharashtra into Madhya Pradesh, and pockets throughout the south. Moderate surpluses are forecast around the coast arc of Sri Lanka’s northern half. Surpluses and transitional conditions are predicted in central Pakistan and exceptional deficits will emerge in Balochistan Province near the Afghan border. In Afghanistan severe surpluses will persist around Kandahar, moderate deficits in the west, and pockets of exceptional deficit will emerge in the north and the border region of the southwest.

The forecast for the final months – October through December – indicates widespread, coast-to-coast moderate surpluses in central India, pockets of deficit in northern regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and surpluses from southeastern Afghanistan well past Quetta, Pakistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Flooding is threatening the harvest of Bangladesh’s winter rice crop in the nation’s northeast. As of 10 April, crops on 5,040 hectares in the region have washed away and 6,700 hectares remain submerged.

Mango farmers in the Indian state of Karnataka are anticipating losses for the fourth straight year as climate disruptions continue to disturb the crop cycle. Unseasonal rains last fall delayed tree flowering. This year’s mango crop is project to be about 30 percent of that produced in a normal year.

Prolonged rainfall in northeastern India triggered flooding in Meghalaya that inundated a dam turbine, killing three of the plant’s employees in the resulting explosion and landslide.

Extremely low flows in Pakistan’s rivers have led the national water authority to issue a nationwide drought alert. The Indus River System Authority is predicting a 45 percent water shortfall, unheard of in the country’s recorded hydrological history. The Tarbala Dam on the Indus has been at dead level since 22 February, a new low. And as of mid-April, flows on other rivers - the Jhelum, Chenab, and Kabul - are just over half the average of the last decade. To help preserve potable water and water for critical agricultural needs, flows to canals in Punjab Province have been cut by 45 percent.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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