South Asia: Widespread water surplus in India

23 May 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through January 2023 indicates widespread water surpluses across the breadth of central India and extending into the southern states. Surpluses will be moderate overall but more intense in Karnataka, Maharashtra, northern Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh. Other areas of surplus include the far north, pockets in Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, and the Gandak River in Bihar. Moderate deficits are expected in northwestern Rajasthan, and severe deficits in a pocket of Punjab.

Surpluses are forecast in western Nepal, intense on the Gandak River. A few small pockets of moderate surplus are predicted in Bangladesh north of Dhaka, and moderate surpluses in southwestern Sri Lanka that will become severe on the coast. Pakistan’s forecast is a patchwork of conditions. Exceptional deficits and transitions are forecast in Punjab Province and near Hyderabad, and exceptional deficits in southern Balochistan. Intense surpluses are forecast surrounding Quetta and mixed conditions in Pakistan’s far north. Surpluses in Balochistan will reach beyond Afghanistan’s Kandahar Province, gradually downgrading. Deficits are forecast elsewhere in Afghanistan, exceptional in the southwest and moderate to severe in the north.

The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July indicates widespread surpluses across central India from Gujarat to West Bengal in a pattern of moderate to extreme surpluses in the west and east framing mild anomalies in Chhattisgarh. Surpluses will be extreme in north-central Maharashtra and exceptional in a pocket on Maharashtra’s central coast. Surpluses are also forecast from southeastern Karnataka through southern Andhra Pradesh and northeastern Tamil Nadu and will be intense in Chitradurga District in central Karnataka. Other regions with a forecast of surplus include eastern Rajasthan into Haryana, a pocket in central Uttar Pradesh, along the Gandak River through Bihar, and India’s far north.

Surpluses, primarily moderate to severe, are forecast throughout Sri Lanka, much of Bangladesh, and in northwestern Nepal and the Gandak River. Mixed conditions are predicted for Pakistan including moderate surpluses near Islamabad, intense surpluses in pockets of northern Balochistan, transitional conditions around Quetta, and moderate deficits southwest of Quetta. Surpluses and transitions are expected in the southeast including Karachi. In Afghanistan, transitional conditions are forecast in Kandahar Province, but surpluses will persist in its namesake city, reaching north. Deficits in the west will shrink and moderate.

From August through October, surpluses will downgrade somewhat in India, increase in the Deccan Plateau, withdraw from West Bengal, and emerge along the east coast from southern Odisha to Chennai. Surpluses in Rajasthan and Haryana will retreat and much of India’s southern tip will return to normal. Near-normal conditions are forecast in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, but surpluses will linger in Nepal. Water conditions in Pakistan will be mixed with surpluses near Karachi and surpluses and transitions surrounding Quetta. Surpluses and transitions are also forecast across the border into Kandahar Province, Afghanistan, and mild to moderate deficits elsewhere in the nation.

The forecast for the final months – November through January – indicates widespread surpluses in central India and into the south. Surpluses will persist from northern Balochistan, Pakistan through Kandahar, Afghanistan. Deficits are expected in northern Afghanistan and Pakistan, pockets in Rajasthan and Far Northeast India, and southeastern Sri Lanka.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Since mid-May, intense rainfall has triggered widespread flooding and mudslides in India’s Far Northeast, affecting over 400,000 people and claiming at least three lives in the state of Assam alone. Relief camps have been set up, currently housing nearly 40,000 people, and many roads, bridges, and irrigation canals have been damaged. The Indian Air Force dispatched a helicopter to evacuate 119 stranded rail passengers and troops assisted 1,000 others. In Nagaon district, the Kopili River broke its record when it peaked at 1.57 meters (5 feet) above the danger level. In neighboring states, five deaths have been reported in Arunachal Pradesh and two in Meghalaya.

Flooding in Afghanistan from late April into early May left 22 people dead and 40 injured in a number of provinces including Faryab, Parwan, Badgis, and Baghlan. Other areas like Takhar, Kapisa, and Daikundi are facing rainfall shortages that have affected crop production.

A heat wave is taking a toll in Pakistan, causing water shortages that have impacted human health and agriculture. The temperature hit 49 degrees Celsius (120 degrees Fahrenheit) in Jacobabad, Sindh in southern Pakistan, resulting in shortages of drinking and irrigation water. Three Indus River reservoirs - Guddu, Sukkur and Kotri - have dropped to between 40 and 51 percent of normal. Kidney disease, diarrhoea, and gastroenteritis have been reported, and lack of water threatens the nation’s mango and olive crops. Much farther north in the nation’s capital, Islamabad and its twin city, Ralwapindi, dams are also running low and the combination of heat and load-shredding has disrupted water supplied from wells.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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