East Asia: Water surpluses will persist in China

24 May 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through January 2023 indicates widespread water surpluses of varying intensity in Northeast China. Anomalies will be particularly intense from eastern Inner Mongolia into Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning.

Surpluses are also forecast in much of the Yellow River (Huang He) Watershed and North China Plain. Anomalies will be severe to exceptional spanning the Hebei-Shandong border and from southeastern Shanxi leading west, and moderate to severe in the Plain’s southern half in the Lower Yangtze River region. Moderate surpluses are expected in southeastern Guizhou, pockets of Yunnan, and a pocket in northeastern Taiwan.

Widespread, intense deficits will reach from western Inner Mongolia through northern Qinghai and a vast belt across Xinjiang Uygur though transitional conditions (pink/purple) are also forecast. In Tibet (Xizang), intense surpluses will dominate many areas in the western half of the region and will include exceptional anomalies along the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River.

North Korea can expect some moderate surpluses in the Yellow Sea province of South Hwanghae. Moderate deficits will skirt the peninsula’s southeastern coast and reach across the Korea Strait to Japan in pockets of Kyushu, Shikoku, and Honshu’s southern tip.

In Mongolia, deficits will be exceptional in the western Gobi Desert and severe in the lakes region in the nation’s northwest. Surpluses are forecast in Khovsgol region in the north.

The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July indicates persistent, widespread surpluses from Northeast China through the North China Plain and much of the Yellow River Watershed. Surpluses will be extreme to exceptional from western Heilongjiang into western Liaoning; the North China Plain’s northern half; and in the Loess Plateau region at the base of the Ordos Loop. In the Yangtze Watershed, surpluses are forecast throughout the northern portion of the basin and in the upper reaches of the south. While much of South and Southeast China can expect normal water conditions, moderate deficits will emerge in the Southeast, particularly in eastern Guangdong, and surpluses are forecast throughout Yunnan and in southern Hainan. Deficits of varying intensity are predicted from western Inner Mongolia through the Tarim Basin across Xinjiang Uygur. Intense surpluses will persist in western Tibet.

In Mongolia, moderate deficits are forecast in the western Gobi Desert and pockets in the lakes region in the nation’s northwest. Surpluses will be intense in Khovsgol region and the Hentiyn Mountains, and moderate in pockets in the Hangayn and central Altai Mountains. On the Korean Peninsula, moderate surpluses are forecast on Korea Bay and in the peninsula’s southern tip, and moderate deficits along the central border. In Japan, deficits are expected in Hokkaido’s coastal west.

From August to October, anomalies will shrink considerably though surpluses will persist in Northeast China; from Jiangsu reaching inland to Shaanxi; pockets of northeastern Qinghai; and western Tibet. Deficits will retreat from Southeast China, emerge in a few scattered pockets of the south, and shrink from Inner Mongolia through Xinjiang. Moderate surpluses will emerge in northern Taiwan and persist in South Hwanghae, North Korea.

The forecast for the final three months – November through January – indicates widespread deficits in China from Yunnan and Sichuan to the southeast coast, Korea, southern Japan, and Xinjiang into Mongolia. Surpluses will persist in Northeast China, much of the North China Plain, northeastern Qinghai, and western Tibet.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
North Korean office and factory workers have been conscripted to help water farm crops in drought-prone regions as the nation struggles with food shortages. Others have been assigned to construction details upgrading irrigation systems.

Heavy precipitation in mid-May caused flooding in southern China’s Guangxi region, affecting 27,000 people and resulting in crop losses estimated at 104 million yuan (US $15.4 million).

Torrential rainstorms in Guangdong province prompted officials to close schools for three days in Guangzhou, a city of over 65 million people. And in Guizhou, 24 school children were rescued in the capital city of Guiyang after being stranded by floodwaters.

Officials in Jiangxi Province in southeastern China are considering the installation of sluice gates on Poyang Lake, China’s largest freshwater lake. The gates would cut the lake off from the Yangtze River during the dry season, thereby preserving the lake’s water level by preventing drainage.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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