Africa: Water deficits forecast across N Africa

22 June 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2023 indicates widespread water deficits, including many areas of intense deficit, across much of North Africa and into South Sudan and northern Niger. Intense surpluses are expected in pockets of coastal Libya including Benghazi, and mixed conditions in Egypt. In West Africa, moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Sierra Leone.

In nations around the Gulf of Guinea, intense deficits are forecast in northern Benin and from southeastern Nigeria through Gabon. Surpluses are forecast in the Inner Niger Delta of central Mali; coastal Ghana and Togo and the Black Volta River region in west-central Ghana; and from Kano State in northern Nigeria reaching east along the Yobe River and south past the capital, Abuja.

In the Horn of Africa, mixed conditions are expected in northern and central Ethiopia including surpluses in the Afar region and transitions and deficits in nearby Tigray and Amhara reaching south to Addis Ababa. Transitional conditions along with exceptional surpluses are forecast for the Nugaal Valley and pockets of deficit in southern Somalia.

In the heart of the continent, severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the central Congo Basin in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), moderating as they reach outward. Intense surpluses are forecast at the western edge of the basin near Kinshasa and Brazzaville, and deficits at the river’s mouth and nearby in Angola. Moderate surpluses are forecast in a pocket of DRC west of Rwanda. Surpluses are expected in eastern Rwanda and moderate deficits in Burundi. Many regions of Tanzania are forecast to experience surpluses, intense in the west and south, reaching into northeastern Zambia and northern Malawi. Deficits are expected in the central cross-border region of Tanzania and Kenya as well as in a few other pockets of Kenya.

In southern Africa, intense deficits are forecast in a pocket north of Harare, Zimbabwe, and moderate deficits in the nation’s southwest. Intense surpluses are forecast near the coastal city of Quelimane in central Mozambique and moderate surpluses in the south. Surpluses are also predicted from south-central Botswana into South Africa, and widespread surpluses are expected in Eastern Cape, southern KwaZulu-Natal, Free State, Lesotho, and the Upper Karoo region of Northern Cape. Some moderate deficits are forecast north of Cape Town. In Madagascar, surpluses are forecast in the northwest and southeast, and a few pockets of deficit near the central west and east coasts.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through August indicates widespread deficits across North Africa including intense deficits in western Algeria, northern Niger, and southeastern Libya into Sudan. Deficits and transitional conditions are forecast in Egypt. Surpluses will be widespread in many East African nations reaching through much of eastern South Africa and southern Botswana. Mixed conditions are expected in the Horn, with surpluses in Afar, Ethiopia and deficits in south-central Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. Around the Gulf of Guinea, surpluses are expected in northern Nigeria, and pockets from Ghana into Benin. Deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast from southeastern Nigeria through western Republic of the Congo. In the heart of the continent, moderate to severe deficits are forecast in the central Congo Basin, moderate deficits in northeastern DRC, and surpluses near Kinshasa. In Angola, moderate deficits are forecast in the northeast and surpluses surrounding Huambo in the central west. In Madagascar, surpluses are forecast in the northwest and southeast, deficits in pockets on the central coasts.

From September through November, deficits will shrink considerably, persisting from Mauritania through Algeria, southern Tunisia, and western and southern Liberia. Deficits will also persist in northeastern Sudan, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, but emerge in Équateur Province in northwestern DRC as deficits elsewhere in the nation retreat. Surpluses will shrink overall but many regions of surplus will persist in eastern and southern Africa, particularly Tanzania.

In the final quarter – December 2022 through February 2023 – generally moderate deficits are forecast in pockets of West Africa, Sudan, Egypt, and southern Libya. Surpluses are expected throughout Uganda and in pockets of northern Ethiopia, Egypt, and Eastern and Northern Cape, South Africa.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
International relief agencies continue to sound the alarm about the consequences of multi-season drought in the Horn of Africa. For Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya, March through May rainfall deficit is the most severe of the last 70 years. Estimates indicate that over half of the population of Somalia faces food insecurity putting hundreds of thousands at risk of starvation.

In southern and southeastern Ethiopia, 7.4 million people are food insecure according to the WFP, 300,000 people have migrated out of drought-stricken homelands, and 2.1 million livestock have died.

As drought grips many nations in northern Africa, food security has become complicated by Russia’s war against Ukraine. Africa imports 40 percent of its needed wheat from Russia and Ukraine, but the war has destroyed croplands, disrupted shipments, and sent prices in Africa rising by 23 percent.

Infrastructure damage from heavy rainfall and widespread flooding in April has forced officials in Durban, South Africa to declare water rationing that could last a year as repairs are made to a water treatment plant. Post-flood recovery throughout KwaZulu-Natal Province where Durban is located is expected to cost R25-billion ($1.6 billion). The death toll from the spring flood event has now risen to 459.

Mid-June storms resulted in flooding in Cape Town, South Africa and other areas in the province of Western Cape. Many major intersections were inundated and power outages were reported in at least eight communities.

Torrential rainfall in Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire on 20 June claimed the lives of five people, four children died in a landslide and an adult drowned in floodwaters. Around 200 millimeters (7.87 inches) of rain fell in less than 24 hours. In the prior week, six people died in a mudslide triggered by heavy precipitation in the city’s western reaches.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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