Africa: Water deficits will persist in the northwest

22 September 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through May 2023 indicates exceptional water deficits in many regions across North Africa.

In West Africa, exceptional deficits are forecast for Sierra Leone and southern Mali, and deficits of lesser intensity in central Guinea, pockets in Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, and southern Ghana. Generally moderate deficits are expected in the eastern Niger River Watershed and the Delta.

Northern Nigeria can expect intense surpluses, particularly in Kano State, downgrading somewhat as they reach into Niger. Surpluses will be widespread in Chad’s southern half and southern regions of Sudan, and much of Central African Republic (CAR) and eastern Cameroon. Anomalies will be extreme in central Chad and exceptional from CAR into Cameroon. Southern Cameroon, however, can expect extreme deficits that will continue down the middle of Gabon.

In the Horn of Africa, a few pockets of deficit are forecast in central Eritrea, around Berber in Somaliland, and surrounding Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Surpluses are forecast in central Somalia.

In the heart of the continent, some moderate deficits are forecast in the Ubangi, Middle Congo, and Kasai Sub-Basins of the Congo River in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and a more intense pocket approaching the river’s mouth. Surpluses are expected in southeastern South Sudan, northern Uganda, and on the southeastern shore of Lake Victoria, and moderate to severe deficits in north-central Tanzania.

Surpluses will be intense in a pocket of central Zambia, and moderate deficits are forecast east of Lake Malawi in Mozambique.

In southern Africa, surpluses are predicted for south-central Botswana; the Kalahari and Upper Karoo regions of Northern Cape in South Africa; Eastern Cape’s northern half and some pockets in Free State; and the Upper Orange River region in Lesotho. Deficits will be intense at the mouth of the Gamtoos River in Eastern Cape and the Olifants River in Western Cape. Deficits are also forecast in a pocket near Namibia’s southern coast. In Madagascar, a pocket of intense deficit is forecast on the central east coast and some moderate surpluses in the south.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through November indicates deficits of varying intensity from Morocco and Mauritania through Mali, Algeria, and western and southern Libya. Exceptional deficits will be widespread in western Algeria and central Mauritania. Mixed conditions are forecast in northern Egypt and surpluses in the south surrounding Lake Nassar. Deficits of varying intensity are predicted for northern Sudan and surpluses in the south. Surpluses will be widespread in Chad’s southern half, intense in the center of the nation, and are also expected from northern Nigeria into Niger, and in northern and eastern Cameroon and northern CAR. Anomalies will be intense in northeastern Nigeria and southwestern CAR.

On the Atlantic, deficits are expected in coastal regions of Liberia through Ghana, and Equatorial Guinea into Gabon. In the Horn, deficits are forecast in central Eritrea and Somaliland, and some surpluses in central Somalia. In East Africa, surpluses will be widespread from Uganda through Tanzania and into nearby regions of Kenya and Rwanda. Anomalies will be intense in northern Uganda and southern Tanzania. Surpluses are also forecast on the While Nile in South Sudan, in pockets of the eastern Congo River Basin, and in northern Zambia. Moderate deficits are forecast in Burundi. In Mozambique, surpluses and transitional conditions (pink/purple) are expected. In South Africa, surpluses are forecast in Free State, the Kalahari and Upper Karoo regions of Northern Cape, Eastern Cape’s northern half, and around Durban in KwaZulu-Natal. In Madagascar, intense deficits will persist in a pocket on the central east coast and surpluses will linger in the far north and far south.

From December 2022 through February 2023, anomalies will shrink considerably. Surpluses will persist primarily in southern Chad, northeastern Nigeria, southern Sudan, and Uganda. Pockets are also expected in coastal Libya, Egypt, South Africa, and southern Madagascar. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in Guinea, Sierra Leone, southern Liberia, and Mali, and deficits of greater intensity in pockets from northern Togo and Benin into Burkina Faso, and in central Nigeria, southeastern Libya, and central and northern Sudan.

In the final quarter – March through May 2023 – widespread deficits of varying intensity will emerge in North Africa from Mauritania to the Red Sea. Anomalies will be especially intense from Egypt into northern Sudan and southeastern Libya; from Mauritania into Mali; and in northeastern Niger. Areas with a forecast of surplus include southern Chad, southern Sudan, and northern Nigeria.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
While flooding is common during the rainy season in Chad, this year the nation has seen its worst flooding in 30 years, affecting over 600,000 people. In parts of N'Djamena, the capital city of well over a million people, the only means of transportation was by boat. Some villages were completely submerged.

Nigeria’s disaster management agency reports that flood-related deaths this year are the highest since 2012, totaling over 300 people so far. Most of the deaths resulted from drowning but electrocution and infrastructure collapse were also cited. Cholera, a waterborne disease, is on the rise in several states where flooding has been widespread including 90 cases in Borno State.

Flooding continued in Sudan through August and September claiming 20 lives in mid-September and bringing the total for the rainy season to 134. Persistent torrential downpours have isolated some remote villages and destroyed nearly 17,000 homes.

Drought is threatening the prized date palm orchards of southern Tunisia. The plantations, located in the oases on the edge of the Sahara where temperatures are extreme, are facing lack of rainfall, increased insect infestations due to dry conditions, and higher power costs for irrigation. Some farmers have already abandoned desiccated groves and made the dangerous journey across the Mediterranean, migrating to Europe.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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