Europe: Water deficits will shrink

19 October 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2023 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in Western Europe and many areas of Central and Eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the Baltic region.

Deficits will reach from the Iberian Peninsula through Germany and into southern Denmark with exceptional deficits encompassing a vast area in Spain surrounding Madrid and leading north. In France, exceptional deficits are forecast in the west in the Vienne River Watershed.

Northern Italy’s Po River Basin will experience extreme to exceptional deficits, conditions that will extend into Veneto Region in the northeast. Exceptional deficits are expected around Lake Geneva and pockets in Hungary and eastern Slovakia. In Ukraine, deficits will be moderate to severe in parts of the Dniester and Pietinis Bugas River Watersheds but more intense in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast from Moldova through eastern Romania and Bulgaria. Elsewhere in the Balkans, generally moderate deficits are expected in western and southern nations, but deficits will be intense in pockets of Albania. Surpluses are forecast in a few pockets including north-central Romania and Czech Republic.

In the U.K., deficits are expected in much of England and Wales, surpluses in southern Scotland and Northern Ireland, and mixed conditions in northern Scotland including deficits in the Grampian Mountains in the Highlands.

In Northern Europe, deficits are forecast from southeastern Norway through Sweden’s southern half, in Estonia and Latvia, and southern Finland and pockets in Finnish Lapland. Anomalies will be exceptional in central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed and pockets in the south, and in Estonia and eastern Latvia.

Areas with a forecast of surplus include Iceland, Lithuania, Arctic Norway, and Norrbotten, Sweden. In Russia, surpluses are forecast in Murmansk, from Lake Onega to the Rybinsk Reservoir, the Central Russia Upland north of Ukraine, the Vychegda Lowland, and the Middle, TransVolga, and Lower Volga regions. Moderate deficits are forecast in the Upper Volga River Watershed and intense deficits in the Mezen and Pechora River Watersheds in the north.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably. Anomalies will be widespread, however, from northern Spain through much of France south of the Allier River and in northern Italy. Deficits will be moderate to severe overall but with a few intense pockets. Deficits are expected in southern Italy as well and moderate deficits in the southern Balkans and eastern Bulgaria. Surpluses are forecast in northern Romania and mixed conditions in pockets of Central Europe including extreme deficits on the Lower Inn River in Germany. In the U.K., moderate deficits are forecast along the Bristol Channel and severe deficits in the Scottish Highlands. In Northern Europe, deficits will persist in Sweden’s southern half and pockets of Finland, and will downgrade in Estonia and Latvia. Surpluses will persist in Norbotten, Sweden, and Arctic Norway and will emerge in western Norway. In Russia, surpluses will continue in Murmansk; from Lake Onega to the Rybinsk Reservoir; the Central Russian Upland and into Ukraine on the Desna and Donets Rivers; the Vychedga Lowland; and much of the Volga Watershed. Moderate deficits are forecast in the Mezen River region.

From January through March 2023, widespread surpluses will emerge in western European Russia while deficits increase in the Mezen and Pechora River regions. Surpluses are also forecast in southern Finland, northern Belarus, Lithuania, southern Norway, Iceland, Ireland, the northern U.K., northern Ukraine, and Central Europe, particularly southern Germany through Switzerland. A pocket of intense surplus will re-emerge in the Valencian region of Spain. Deficits will downgrade but continue in northern Spain, southern France, northern Italy and Sardinia, and the southern Balkans.

The forecast for the final months – April through June – indicates pockets of moderate deficit in Spain, France, and northern Italy. Deficits will increase in the Balkans, emerge in Eastern Europe, and increase in Sweden. Surpluses will shrink overall, particularly in Russia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Recent rainfall has brought water levels on the Rhine River back to normal, a relief for vessel brokers and commodity traders as barges can once again travel fully loaded on one of Europe’s most important trade routes. In August, drought forced freighters to carry reduced loads just 25 percent of normal, escalating shipping costs.

Germany scientists have stripped the Southern Schneeferner in Bavaria of its glacier status, stating that significant ice loss due to repeated heatwaves has disqualified it. The demotion brings the total number of Germany glaciers down to four from five.

The Netherlands, where numerous dikes stand testament to the nation’s long history of flood prevention, faces a potential drinking water shortage. Drought, salinity, and population growth are threatening the potable water supply. Without water infrastructure improvement, experts predict that by 2030 Dutch water providers could default on obligations to meet the nation’s water needs.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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