South Asia: widespread water surplus will persist

21 November 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2023 indicates exceptional surpluses covering most of central and southern Pakistan and surpluses of varying intensity in the north. In Afghanistan, severe to extreme surpluses are forecast east of the Helmand River, becoming exceptional in pockets of the south.

Water surpluses will be widespread in much of central India and the Deccan Plateau, and in the west and far north. Surplus anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in the Godavari River Basin, and in Karnataka, eastern Maharashtra, southern Madhya Pradesh, and southern Rajasthan. In northern India, intense surpluses are predicted from central Jammu and Kashmir into western Himachal Pradesh. Intense deficits are forecast in Bihar and Northeast India, and deficits are also expected at the tip of Tamil Nadu in southern India. Nearby in Sri Lanka, surpluses are forecast in the north and southwest.

Surpluses are expected throughout much of Bangladesh with intense anomalies in the northeast and south. Nepal can expect widespread surpluses, exceptional in the center of the nation, and surpluses are forecast for Bhutan’s western half.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through January 2023 indicates transitional conditions in central and southern Pakistan as deficits emerge, but intense surpluses will persist in the north. In Afghanistan, intense surpluses are forecast in the southeast and will emerge around Mazar-e Sharif in the north; transitional conditions are forecast in the south. Surpluses will be widespread in central, western, and far northern India, but will shrink somewhat in the nation’s south. Anomalies will be exceptional in western Maharashtra, Karnataka, and from Jammu and Kashmir through Uttarakhand. Moderate to exceptional deficits will emerge in northern Rajasthan. Mixed conditions are forecast in India’s Far Northeast. Intense surpluses are expected throughout Bangladesh, Nepal, and western Bhutan. In Sri Lanka, moderate surpluses are forecast in the west.

From February through April, exceptional surpluses will re-emerge in much of central and southern Pakistan while surpluses in the north shrink and downgrade. Normal conditions will return to most of Afghanistan. In India, surpluses will remain widespread in the center of the nation, moderate overall. Exceptional surpluses will persist in central Karnataka and increase in southern Rajasthan while deficits in northern Rajasthan retreat. Transitional conditions are forecast in Gujarat and western Maharashtra. India’s far north will continue to see surpluses, as will parts of the Ganges Plain. In Northeast India, a pocket of deficit is forecast in central Assam. Surpluses of varying intensity will continue in Bangladesh and Nepal. Surpluses in Sri Lanka will shrink, persisting in its northern tip and coastal southwest.

The forecast for the final months – May through July – indicates exceptional surpluses in Pakistan, surpluses of varying intensity in Karnataka and central Maharashtra, and deficits in Northeast India.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Widespread flooding throughout Pakistan has affected more than 18 million people and damaged around 2.4 million hectares of cropland including maize, rice, vegetables, sugarcane, fodder, and cotton. The World Bank estimates that the flooding has cost the nation $30 billion in damages and economic losses. In Sindh Province, one of the worst-hit regions, over 4,000 square kilometers of land remained submerged in mid-October, putting hopes for its winter wheat crop in jeopardy.

In early October, landslides and flooding triggered by heavy rainfall claimed over 100 lives in the Himalayan foothills of Nepal.

Cyclone Sitrang struck coastal Bangladesh at the end of October, cutting power and communication lines, damaging 10,000 homes and 6,000 hectares (13,826 acres) of cropland. The death toll is estimated between 15 and 35 people and 8 million were left without electricity. The storm surge flooded low-lying areas in 3 meters (10 feet) of water.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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