ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List December 2022

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST December 2022

16 December 2022

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in September 2022 and running through August 2023 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List December 16, 2022 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through February 2023 indicates extreme to exceptional water deficits near the Idaho Rockies and in the Central Plains. Deficits nearly as intense are forecast in northern Florida. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.

Canada: Canada can expect widespread exceptional water deficits through February 2023 across the central regions of British Columbia, Manitoba, Alberta, and Quebec, as well as western and eastern Ontario.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Intense water surpluses are forecast in much of Central America and Cuba. Moderate to extreme deficits are anticipated in north-central Mexico.

South America: Significant water deficits are expected in Venezuela, western Brazil, Bolivia, and Chile through February 2023. Areas of surplus include far northern Colombia, far eastern Venezuela, northern Guyana, and the northern Amazon Basin.

Europe: Widespread water deficits are expected in France, northern Italy, northern Germany, along with many pockets elsewhere in continental Europe. Deficits will be exceptional in central Sweden and the Baltic region. Areas of surplus include the United Kingdom, Ireland, Romania, and European Russia.

Africa: The forecast indicates surpluses in a band along the southern edge of the Sahel through February 2023 or longer. Anomalies will be especially widespread and intense in Chad.

Middle East: Severe water deficits are forecast in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia through February 2023. Deficits of varying intensity are expected in western Turkey through February or longer.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through February 2023 indicates vast areas of intense surplus in Russia's Yenisei River system. Surpluses are also expected in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.

South Asia: Surpluses of varying intensity are projected in many regions of South Asia through February 2023 or longer with exceptional surpluses in Nepal and Bangladesh. Deficits will emerge in Rajasthan, India.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast throughout much of Southeast Asia and many areas in the Pacific. Anomalies will be especially intense in Thailand, Cambodia, and Myanmar, though deficits will emerge in northern Myanmar.

East Asia: The forecast through February 2023 indicates widespread, intense water deficits in China from the Yangtze Gorges through Guizhou, and in southern Taiwan. Deficits are also forecast in South Korea and southern Japan.

Australia & New Zealand: Widespread, intense water surpluses will persist in southeastern Australia through February 2023 or longer.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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