Canada: Intense widespread deficits persist across provinces

26 May 2023
The 12-month forecast ending in January anticipates widespread deficits throughout many of Canada’s provinces, as well as pockets of intense surplus in its northern and some central areas.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast in:

Central to northeastern British Columbia, in northern and eastern regions of Thompson–Nicola and Fraser-Fort George Regional District, and northeast into the North Rockies regions.
Northwestern Alberta, throughout Mackenzie County. Further southwest, areas near The Municipal District of Greenview No. 16 can expect similarly intense deficits.
Central Saskatchewan, in areas throughout and directly south of Lac La Ronge.
Central and northern Manitoba, appearing in areas north of Lake Winnipeg and into northeastern coastal regions of the Hudson Bay.
Southern Manitoba, near the city of Winnipeg.
Western Northwest Territories, appearing in southwestern areas of the Inuvik Region, as well as coastal regions of the Inuvialuit Lands. In southern regions of the province, areas south of Great Slave Lake can expect deficits of similar intensity.
Western Ontario, in areas near Sachigo Lake First Nation, as well as northeastern areas along the coast of the Hudson Bay.
Quebec, appearing in pockets across coastal regions along the Hudson Bay, throughout areas near and southwest of Lake Mistassini, northern coastal regions of the Baie-d'Hudson, and across much of the Rivière-Koksoak. These anomalies continue into western Newfoundland.
Southeastern Nunavut, spanning the province’s eastern coastal regions along the Hudson Bay.
The Baffin and Southampton islands, with the most intense deficits occurring in the southern regions of Baffin Island, throughout Southampton, and further north within the Inuit Owned Lands.

Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected in:

Northwest Saskatchewan, surrounding areas north and south of Lake Athabasca.
Southeast Northwest Territories, within the Fort Smith region, southeast of Great Slave Lake.
Western Yukon, northeast of the Kluane National Park and Reserve, as well as areas near Dawson City.
Northern areas of Nunavut, throughout most coastal regions along the Northwestern Passage and the Queen Elizabeth Islands.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2023 predicts that deficits will remain widespread throughout the majority of Canada. Exceptional deficits are expected to persist in central to northeastern British Columbia, northwestern to central Saskatchewan, and central to northeast Manitoba. Similar deficits are also expected to continue throughout western and eastern Ontario, Quebec, and western areas of Newfoundland. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected to continue in northwest Saskatchewan, western areas of Northwest Territories northwest of Great Bear Lake, northern coastal regions of Nunavut along its northern coast, and the Queen Elizabeth Islands.

From August through October 2023, widespread exceptional deficits are expected to linger in much of the provinces, though decrease in size. Eastern British Columbia, northwestern Manitoba, central Saskatchewan, and central to northern Manitoba can expect most existing exceptional deficits to persist. Western and eastern Ontario, as well as south-central and eastern Quebec can expect similar deficits to remain, with the latter’s continuing to expand east into Newfoundland. Lingering surpluses can be expected in northwest Saskatchewan, southwest Yukon, northern coastal regions of Nunavut, and areas throughout the Queen Elizabeth Islands.

The forecast for the final months – November through January 2024 – indicates that most deficits throughout the continent will downgrade to normal conditions or mild anomalies, with the exception of small areas of exceptional deficits lingering in central and northeastern Alberta, central and northeastern Manitoba, and northeastern Quebec. Northeastern areas of Victoria Island can expect similarly intense persistent deficits. Exceptional surpluses are expected to linger in northwestern Saskatchewan, northern to central areas of Northwest Territories, central Yukon, northern coastal regions of Nunavut, and throughout various territories of the Queen Elizabeth Islands.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A heat wave similar to the historic event in June 2021 is beginning to appear in areas of Canada. Appearing around the Hudson Bay, it is expected to spread into British Columbia and Alberta, as well as into some northern American states, all of which have been experiencing major wildfires and persisting drought. These same parts of Canada were affected by June 2021’s exceptional heat wave, which brought record-breaking temperatures and devastating wildfires.

Smoke from Canada's wildfires is drifting across the border, prompting the issuing of air quality alerts across many U.S. states, including Colorado, Utah, Montana, and Idaho. Utah's Department of Environmental Quality warned air quality would remain "unhealthy for sensitive groups" through May 22nd, while Colorado's Department of Public Health and Environment noted on May 21st that more plumes of wildfire smoke is approaching from the north. Additionally, oil production in Alberta has been paused due to the weeks-long fires in the area, where 83 wildfires were burning as of May 21st.

Spring wheat farmers in Canada are experiencing some of the lowest accumulated rainfall levels of this century. Agricultural workers plan to boost planted acreage this season, but could face challenges from the region’s prolonged drought. Canada is the world’s biggest producer of spring wheat, and could help alleviate potential shortages in the US, which is off to a slow beginning. Spring wheat, planted mostly in the provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, accounts for 75% of the country’s total wheat crop.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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