ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List January 2023

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST January 2023

17 January 2023

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in October 2022 and running through September 2023 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List January 17, 2023 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through March 2023 indicates intense surpluses throughout the northeastern states, southern Idaho, eastern-central Nevada, and west-central Utah. Deficits in central Idaho near the Salmon River Mountains are also expected to linger.

Canada: Canada can expect widespread exceptional water deficits through March 2023 in central regions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, as well as southeast Yukon, western Northwest Territories, and northern and southeastern Ontario.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through March 2023 anticipates intense surpluses to persist in Central America, specifically through western Guatemala, southeastern Honduras, and throughout Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica.

South America: Widespread moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated through March 2023 in the northern regions of the continent, including eastern Colombia, northern Brazil, southern Venezuela, and throughout the Guianas.

Europe: The forecast through March 2023 predicts severe to exceptional deficits in central France, west-central Sweden, and coastal areas of the Balkans, including eastern Bulgaria.

Africa: Africa can expect intense surpluses throughout the southern Sahel to persist through March 2023 or longer, continuing throughout Burkina Faso, southern Sudan, and Chad.

Middle East: The forecast through March 2023 indicates widespread anomalies of similar intensity throughout north-central Saudi Arabia, with transitional conditions occurring in pockets throughout southern Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast for March 2023 indicates intense surplus throughout much of the central and eastern regions, with major deficits occurring throughout western and some northeastern areas.

South Asia: Surpluses of varying intensity are projected in many regions of South Asia through March 2023 or longer with exceptional surpluses persisting in Pakistan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast throughout much of Southeast Asia and many areas in the Pacific. Anomalies will be especially intense in eastern Thailand, northern Cambodia, and southeastern Myanmar.

East Asia: The forecast throughout March 2023 anticipates intense deficits in central and southeastern regions, to intense surpluses spanning from southwest to northeastern territories.

Australia & New Zealand: Widespread, intense water surpluses will persist in southeastern Australia through March 2023 or longer.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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