Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: surpluses in C. Amer to persist

30 January 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2023 indicates intense surpluses will persist throughout much of Central America and the Caribbean. In Mexico, widespread deficits of varying intensity are expected to occur, with isolated areas of significant surplus.

Areas experiencing severe to exceptional surpluses include:

Northwestern Mexico, primarily in Sonora and central Baja California Sur.
Northern Cuba, covering much of the country.
Central Panama.

Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the following areas:

Western Mexico, in southern Durango.
Central to northern Belize, from Orange Walk, spreading south throughout Cayo and Stann Creek to northern Toledo.
Guatemala, with most intense occurrences in southern Izabal, Zacapa, Jalapa, and Chiquimula.
Honduras, expected to experience widespread surpluses throughout the country, with the most intense occurring in northwestern to southern Olancho.
Nicaragua, with extreme surpluses expected throughout the region. However, normal conditions to mild surpluses are forecast for Atlantico Norte.
Western Costa Rica, with the most intense surplus occurring in western to southern Guanacaste.
The islands of Saint Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, and Dominica in the Caribbean.

Portions of the Bahamas.

Extreme to exceptional deficits can be expected in:

Northern Baja California.
Throughout central inland areas of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Much of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in:

Central Mexico, widespread throughout the country, with the most intense occurring in southern Michoacan, central Puebla, and southeastern Chihuahua.
Most of the Cayman Islands.
Western and eastern Jamaica.
Haiti, including intense deficits in Nord-Ouest and Grand’Anse.
Western Puerto Rico.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2023 anticipates intense surpluses to persist in Central America, specifically through western Guatemala, southeastern Honduras, and throughout Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica. In the Bahamas, much of the island of Andros can expect similar surpluses. Deficits throughout Mexico are expected to continue with pockets of exceptional anomalies appearing near northern Durango, western Veracruz into Oaxaca, and central Yucatan. Transitional conditions can be expected in central Baja California Sur, with moderate deficits emerging in the state’s northern and southern regions.

From April through June 2023, major deficits in Mexico are expected to dissipate into normal conditions, with scattered instances of mild deficits in western and southeastern regions. Similarly, major surpluses in Central America are anticipated to decrease in severity, though intense surpluses in eastern Honduras and southeastern Nicaragua are expected to remain. Transitional conditions are expected to occur in western Nicaragua and northwestern Costa Rica, with extreme to severe surpluses persisting in the latter near the Nicoya Peninsula.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2023 – expects severe to extreme deficits to emerge near Chiapas, Mexico, spreading into central Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Arizona’s water finance board recently voted to advance plans to construct a $5 billion desalination plant, which would pump water from Mexico’s Sea of Cortez 200 miles north to ease the state’s water crisis. IDE Technologies, the Israeli company behind the proposal, claims it can deliver up to 1 million acre-feet of water to Arizona. Environmental groups have raised concerns about environmental impacts of the plant, citing potential damage to marine habitats, disruption of sensitive ecosystems in the Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument, and brine being pumped back into the Sea of Cortez. Personnel from Arizona’s Sierra Club suggest that the state should be more focused on conserving water and assessing the use of water-intensive crops, such as alfalfa, rather than shifting the negative environmental impact onto Mexico.

As of January 20th, nearly 80 percent of Mexico is currently affected by drought and lack of rainfall. The report said that 79.51 percent falls within the categories of “abnormally dry to exceptional drought” while only 20.49 percent remains unaffected. According to the report, regions most affected by the drought were northeastern Mexico, the Sierra Madre Occidental, southern Veracruz, and northern Oaxaca. Over 35 percent of the nation was experiencing moderate to extreme drought, more that 16 percent more than calculations from the end of 2022.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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