East Asia: Intense water surpluses to persist in SE, N China

31 January 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2023 indicates exceptional anomalies throughout East Asia, ranging from intense deficits in central and southeastern regions, to intense surpluses spanning from southwest to northeastern territories.

Exceptional surplus is expected in:

Northeast China, with the most intense anomalies appearing in pockets throughout Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shandong, Liaoning, and northwestern Jilin.
Northern Shaanxi, China.
Western China, along the borders of Kyrgyzstan and in western Xizang. Nearby areas to the east, along the Za’gya, Bogcang, and Salween Rivers, can expect moderate surplus.
Central North Korea, particularly widespread in South Pyongan Province.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to occur in:

Northwest China, in central Xinjiang Uygur, northern Qinghai, Gansu, and western Inner Mongolia. Nearby areas of western Xinjang Uygur, southwest of the Tarim River, can expect extreme transitional conditions.
The Yangtze River Basin from southwestern Hubei through Guizhou; and eastern Sichuan.
Taiwan, in regions along its western coast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2023 anticipates intense surpluses in Northeast China, The Shandong Peninsula and much of the North China Plain, the Ordos Loop, eastern Tibet (Xizang), and southwestern Tibetan Plateau. Transitional conditions can be anticipated throughout South Xinjiang with surplus of varying intensity occurring further south. Intense deficits can be expected to persist from Hubei through Guizhou and into Yunnan. Moderate surpluses will emerge in Southeast China, and deficits will emerge in southern Japan.

From April through June 2023, intense deficits are expected to persist from Hubei into Guizhou, shrinking overall. Surpluses in Northeast China will remain widespread, shrinking somewhat, but will remain intense in eastern Inner Mongolia, northern Shanxi, and across the Shandong Peninsula. Transitional conditions will persist in South Xinjiang with surplus of varying intensity continuing further south. Mostly mild anomalies are expected to occur throughout the nation.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2023 – predicts intense deficits in western Inner Mongolia, northern Xinjang Uygur, and central Gansu, while exceptional deficits elsewhere in the country retreat. Moderate deficits are forecast from Shaanxi into Sichuan, as well as southern Japan. surpluses northeast of Nepal are expected to persist, as are pockets of transitional conditions near the Ordos Loop.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
According to a study performed by researchers from Wuhan University and Oxford, the record warm temperatures observed in 2022 indicate that more than 90% of the world’s population are expected to experience increased risks of complications caused by a combination of extreme heat and drought. According to research, “the frequency of extreme compounding hazards is projected to intensify tenfold globally due to the combined effects of warming and decreases in terrestrial water storage,” which is under the highest emission scenario. Researchers anticipate that even under the lowest emission scenario, “over 90% of the world population and GDP is projected to be exposed to increasing compounding risks in the future climate.” These threats coupled together could potentially worsen socioeconomic inequalities, as they are projected to have more severe impacts on rural, poorer areas.

On January 16, the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources announced that Beijing invested the equivalent of $148 billion dollars, more than 1 trillion yuan, on water resource management in 2022. This is a 44 percent increase compared to its investment in 2021. Due to the area’s record-breaking drought, factories in southwest China had to temporarily cease operations as some rivers in the country dried up, including some parts of the Yangtze River. As China is one of the world’s largest consumers of resources as well as one of the biggest economic drivers, these shutdowns from water shortages might cause more supply chain issues, affecting much of the rest of the world, including the United States and Europe.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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