Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Widespread deficits throughout Mexico

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Widespread deficits throughout Mexico

24 February 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2023 indicates anomalies of varying intensity throughout Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. Intense deficits are expected in southeastern Mexico, and intense surpluses are expected to be widespread throughout the Caribbean and Central America.

Areas experiencing severe to exceptional surpluses include:

  • Panama, primarily within the central regions of the country.

  • Western Mexico, in the central regions of Baja California Sur.

Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the following areas:

  • Eastern Honduras, north of the city of Catacamas.

  • Central to southern Nicaragua, throughout and north of the Indio Maiz Biological Reserve. 

  • Northwestern Costa Rica, near the city of Liberia.

  • Central areas of the North Andros region in the Bahamas.

Extreme to exceptional deficits can be expected in:

  • Central areas of Baja California.

  • Southeastern Mexico, throughout the Yucatan Peninsula.

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in:

  • Central Mexico, widespread throughout the country.

  • Northern regions of Baja California Sur.

  • Northern areas of Puerto Rico and Haiti. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits to emerge throughout western coastal regions of Mexico, with mild to moderate deficits occurring across the rest of the country, and intense transitional conditions in central California Baja Sur. Surpluses of severe to extreme intensity will linger throughout Central America, spanning the majority of regions in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Transitional conditions are expected to persist in central Panama.

From May through July 2023, major anomalies throughout Mexico are expected to dissipate into normal conditions or mild deficits, though transitional conditions in central Baja California Sur are expected to continue. Surpluses throughout Central America are forecast to become mild deficits, with moderate surpluses still expected in southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. 

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2023 – expects moderate to severe deficits to emerge in western and southern Guatemala, El Salvador, and northern Honduras. Transitional conditions in central Baja California Sur are expected to become exceptional surpluses.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Continuous, unpredictable bouts of extreme weather is disrupting growth of agave plants in Mexico. Though it is a drought tolerant plant and can thrive in hot climates with little amounts of water, the plant is too fragile to withstand the changing weather conditions, which range from intense drought to heavy flooding. As the weather increases in severity and unpredictability, pollinators such as bees, butterflies, and bats are also put at risk. In particular, the Mexican long-nosed bat is the only pollinator of the specific agave plant that creates tequila, one of the best known products of the plant. Tequila is also gaining popularity in Europe, causing the strain in agave production to worsen. According to Mexico's Tequila Regulatory Council, export volumes to Spain jumped to 90% last year, 73% in France, and 68% in Britain, outpacing global growth of 23%.

Guatemalans are still struggling to recover years after hurricanes Eta and Iota caused widespread destruction throughout the country. The region of Chiquimula, Guatemala, is exemplary of the many larger challenges Guatemalans face due to volatile climate. The hurricanes destroyed people’s crops and homes, forcing them to rebuild or relocate without sufficient resources to do either. The area was again hit by tropical storm Celia in 2022, causing more issues, such as food insecurity and displacement, forcing locals to rebuild or relocate, without sufficient resources to do either. Years after Eta and Iota, half of the people interviewed by Refugees International had been unable to return to their homes.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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