ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List March 2023

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST march 2023

16 March 2023

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in December 2022 and running through November 2023 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List March 16, 2023 (pdf).

United States: Surpluses in the southwestern states are expected to persist throughout November 2023 or longer. 

Canada: Intense deficits throughout most provinces, such as British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan, are expected to persist throughout August 2023 or longer. 

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Mild to moderate deficits are expected to persist throughout Mexico, with lingering surpluses in Central America change into mild to moderate deficits by August 2023. 

South America: From June through August 2023, most intense anomalies are expected to disappear, except for intense deficits continuing in eastern Brazil and northern Chile. 

Europe: Widespread surpluses in Continental Europe are expected to subside by August 2023, with widespread moderate deficits emerging, as well as normal conditions in eastern European countries. 

Africa: Persisting surpluses south of the Sahel are expected to dissipate to mild to moderate levels by August 2023.  

Middle East: Extreme to exceptional deficits in Saudi Arabia are expected to subside by May 2023, but may reemerge in June 2023, lasting throughout November 2023 or longer. 

Central Asia and Russia: Widespread anomalies of varying intensity are expected to continue throughout western and central Russia throughout May 2023 or longer. 

South Asia: Intense surplus and transitional conditions in Pakistan are expected to linger until November 2023 or longer.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Intense surplus throughout much of Southeast Asia and the Pacific is expected to remain until May 2023.

East Asia: Surpluses scattered throughout Tibet are expected to persist until August 2023 or longer, as well as deficits throughout the Yangtze River Basin.

Australia & New Zealand: Exceptional surpluses in Southeast Australia are expected to persist until August 2023 or longer.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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