Canada: Widespread deficits to persist across provinces

24 March 2023
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2023 indicates widespread exceptional anomalies throughout the continent, with deficits spanning through central areas of several provinces.

Exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Central to eastern British Columbia, throughout regions surrounding Williston Lake.
Northern Alberta, spanning across much of the provinces’ northwestern regions, continuing in pockets south near Jasper National Park.
Central Saskatchewan, near the town of La Ronge.
Central and northern Manitoba, in regions north of Lake Winnipeg and along the coast of Hudson Bay.
Western and eastern Ontario, around Sachigo Lake and along the coast of the Hudson Bay.
Pockets throughout Quebec, with the most intense anomalies appearing along the coast of Hudson Bay, near Lake Mistassini, throughout Ivujivik, and between the border of eastern Quebec and western Newfoundland.
Along the southern coast of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Central and northern Northwest Territories, in areas southwest of Great Bear Lake and along the Mackenzie River.
Southeastern Nunavut, throughout and north of Southampton Island into the Inuit Owned Lands and throughout southern areas of Baffin Island.

Severe to extreme deficits can be expected in:

North-central British Columbia, north of Spatsizi Plateau Wilderness Provincial Park.
Central Alberta, throughout Lesser Slave Lake and Peace River.
Northeastern Saskatchewan, in regions near Black Lake.
Northwestern Ontario, throughout regions north of Big Trout Lake.
Southern Quebec, along the province’s southern border, and moving further south into the cities of Montreal and Ottawa.
Southeastern Nunavut, throughout and north of Southampton Island into the Inuit Owned Lands and throughout southern areas of Baffin Island.
Southeastern Yukon, south of the South Nahanni River, along its shared border with Northwest Territories. Northern Yukon will experience similar deficits in areas east of the Ivvavik National Park, spreading east into northern Northwest Territories.

Exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Southeastern Northwest Territories, in areas north and southeast of Great Bear Lake, and along northern coastal regions of the Amundsen Gulf.

Northwest Saskatchewan, in regions south of Lake Athabasca.
Southwest to central Yukon, northwest of Kluane Lake and northwest of Mayo Lake.
Northwest British Columbia, within the Stikine Region.
Northern Nunavut, along the region’s northern coast of the Kitikmeot Region, northern Baffin Island, and throughout the Queen Elizabeth Islands.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits in eastern British Columbia and throughout Alberta. Central Saskatchewan and central Manitoba, as well as the latter’s coastal areas along the Hudson Bay, can anticipate similarly intense deficits. Western Ontario can anticipate a combination of extreme to exceptional deficits, while coastal regions bordering the Hudson Bay in eastern Ontario can expect similar deficits. Quebec can expect widespread exceptional deficits, which spread further east into western Newfoundland. Similar deficits are forecast for southeastern Nunavut, more specifically throughout and north of Southampton Island into the Inuit Owned Lands and throughout the majority of Baffin Island. Intense surpluses are forecast in northern and eastern Newfoundland and Labrador, near Torngat Mountains National Park, and areas near the community of Blanc-Sablon. Similar surpluses are expected in southeastern Northwest Territories into northwest Saskatchewan, and along Nunavut’s northern coast of the Northwest Passage north of the Queen Maud Gulf Bird Sanctuary.

From June through August 2023, intense anomalies are expected to continue, with exceptional deficits occurring throughout central regions of the southern provinces,except for Ontario, which will instead observe exceptional deficits in its western and eastern regions. Similar deficits are expected to endure throughout and north of Southampton Island into the Inuit Owned Lands, and throughout the majority of southern Baffin Island. Mild transitional conditions are expected to occur in northeastern Manitoba, with exceptional surpluses continuing throughout northern Nunavut, the Queen Victoria Islands, and northwestern Saskatchewan.

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2023 – anticipates anomalies to lessen in severity, though intense deficits are still expected in eastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, northern and central Manitoba, southeastern Nunavut, Ontario, and south-central Quebec. Intense surpluses are expected to continue in northern Nunavut, Yukon, Northwestern Territories, and Saskatchewan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Major areas of British Columbia could be lost to rising sea levels, according to a report from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS). The report describes threats to water and food security, Arctic sovereignty, and coastal security. According to the report, rising sea levels could potentially cause irreparable damage to infrastructure and communities, with the possibility of destroying westernmost areas of the province. CSIS’s analysis does not detail which regions would be most affected, though three quarters of British Columbia’s population live in western coastal areas. In Vancouver, city planners estimated that sea levels could rise up to two meters in the next 80 years. Government officials of the province committed $100 million on March 6th to protect freshwater sources, as well as a budget statement that details more than $1 billion in spending to combat climate change by building more climate-resistant communities. Officials will release a flood strategy for the province which will include floodplain mapping, with the intention of preserving future investments in reducing flood risk.

Climate change experts from the University of Saskatchewan’s Centre for Hydrology have warned the government of problematic changes in spring snowmelt patterns, which have started three weeks earlier compared to 80 years ago. Dr. John Pomeroy, the director of the University of Saskatchewan’s Centre for Hydrology, reported that the amount of precipitation as snow has fallen to about 20 percent from 30 percent, as well as the South Saskatchewan River flowing 12 percent lower than the beginning of the 20th century. “We need to make sure we are prepared for it by improving our flood and drought forecasting, looking at irrigation expansion wherever it makes sense and think about using new crops that have improved water efficiency,” Pomeroy said. Pomeroy also stated that while Saskatchewan won’t be as badly affected as island nations and coastal cities, that it is still imperative to develop new water management techniques to improve flood and drought forecasting.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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