Africa: Surpluses continue S of the Sahel

25 April 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2023 anticipates deficits to cover much of the continent, with small pockets of surpluses appearing in central and southeastern Africa.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to occur in the following regions:

• Central to northern Mauritania, throughout the Fderik Department into northern regions of Mali’s Salam area.

• Northern Morocco, in the Kenitra province, appears again further south in central regions of the Western Sahara.

• Southern Gabon, throughout the Ogoulou, Tsamba-Magotsi, and Douigni departments.

• Southwestern Angola, near the Iona National Park.

• Southwestern Namibia, near the Karas Region.

• Democratic Republic of the Congo, throughout the country.

• Southwestern Republic of Congo, throughout the Bouenza Department.

• Central to southern Tunisia, with mostly severe to extreme deficits appearing near the Jebil National Park and the region of Remada.

Extreme to exceptional surplus is anticipated in:

• Northern Nigeria, near the city of Kano.

• Western Tanzania, in regions west of the city of Tabora.

• Southern Mozambique, near the city of Maputo.

• Southeastern Botswana, in areas within the Jwaneng District.

• Southeastern Libya, near the Kufra District.

NOTE: The bullseye-shaped surplus anomaly in Southeastern Libya is reflective of an unusual amount of rainfall in the area according to data collected by NOAA. However, discrepancies exist from different precipitation datasets of this area of the world, as this anomaly is not shown in CHIRPS.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through June 2023 anticipates intense deficits to continue throughout Egypt, eastern Mauritania, western Mali, and west-central Algeria. A band of surplus is expected to emerge in regions south of the Sahel, such as southern Niger, northern Nigeria, and southern Chad. Surpluses of similar intensity are expected in western Tanzania, southern Mozambique, and south-central areas of Botswana.

From July through September 2023, deficits in northern Africa are expected to linger, with some transitional conditions appearing in western Algeria, southeastern Libya, Egypt, and northern Sudan. Other anomalies that are expected to linger include surplus in western Tanzania and in central Somalia. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to emerge in northern areas of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2023 – anticipates deficits in Egypt and northern Sudan to persist, with pockets of similarly intense deficits appearing in western Algeria, Mali, and eastern Niger. Surplus pockets are also expected to persist in southern Mozambique. The majority of the rest of the continent can expect mostly normal conditions to mild anomalies.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On April 11th, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres announced need for massive international support for Somalia, which continues to face its worst drought in decades. The announcement was made during a joint briefing with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud while Guterres visited the region. During his stay, he visited a camp for displaced people in Baidoa, in southwest Somalia, praising the determination of residents that had shown to rebuild their lives.. Food security experts say livelihood in the country remains “extremely critical” as more than 6 million people are experiencing major food insecurity.

The African Risk Capacity (ARC) Group has announced a $188,000 insurance payout to the Gambia’s government to assist with recovery from drought. ARC explains that as drought conditions spread across the Sahel region during the 2022 - 2023 farming season, Gambia was amongst the most affected, which led to late planting in several districts, including Badiou, Jarra West, Kiang North Bank West, and Upper River North. According to the AfricaRisk View, ARC’s technical software for early warning and monitoring, a total of 153,902 people were affected, accumulating a payout of $187,641.

State officials have ordered water rationing in most regions across the country of Tunisia, including its capital city, Tunis. From 9 p.m. to 4 a.m., houses are cut off for seven hours in order to ration water usage from April to September. Tunisia is experiencing its fifth year of an increasingly severe drought, with the government issuing a sudden order to its population to ration their water usage from April to September — or risk fines or jail. Tunisian households currently use bottled water to wash, use toilets, and prepare meals during late night hours. Authorities have also forbidden the use of potable water for irrigation of farmlands, watering green areas in cities, and for cleaning cars and streets.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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