Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Deficits to emerge in Thailand, Papua New Guinea

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Deficits to emerge in Thailand, Papua New Guinea

25 April 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2023 indicates widespread anomalies of varying intensity across Southeast Asia and the Pacific. The most intense anomalies are expected to appear mostly throughout the islands of Indonesia and nearby regions. 

Deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Thailand, throughout the country, with regions near the province of Uttaradit experiencing the highest intensity anomalies.  

  • Western Cambodia, northwest of the Tonlé Sap Lake. 

  • Western Malaysia, near the city of Kuala Lumpur.

  • Northern Papua, throughout the Mamberamo Raya Regency.

  • Papua New Guinea, throughout the area, with exceptional deficits occurring near the city of Madang, as well as further south, near the cities of Iamara and Daru. 

Surplus is anticipated in: 

  • Northern to south-central Malaysia, beginning in the state of Kelantan and moving further south into Pahang and Singapore. The eastern state of Terengganu can expect moderate to severe transitional conditions. 

  • Central and eastern islands of the Philippines, with Samar Island, Leyte, and the city of Surigao experiencing extreme to exceptional surplus. 

  • Several islands of Indonesia, including the Aceh province of Sumatra Island, much of East Nusa Tenggara, northern Sulawesi.

  • Southern Papua, in the Merauke Regency.

  • Southeastern Papua New Guinea, near Port Moresby. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2023 indicates that many intense anomalies throughout the region will downgrade, becoming mostly mild to moderate anomalies, with some exceptions. Regions in central Vietnam near the city of Da Nang are expected to experience severe to exceptional surpluses, with some transitional conditions further south, near the city of Buon Ma Thuot. Transitional conditions are also expected in central Thailand. Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in pockets throughout Indonesia, including northern Sulawesi, East Nusa Tenggara, central and eastern island of the Philippines, and the Narathiwat province of Thailand. Areas in the Merauke Regency of southern Papua, as well as southeastern Papua New Guinea near Port Moresby, can expect moderate to severe surpluses.

Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for western areas of the Malaysian state of Sarawak, and western Malaysia, near the city of Kuala Lumpur. Western to central regions of the island of Java can anticipate similarly intense deficits, as well as nearby southern coastal regions of the island of Sumatra, in the Lampung province.

From July through September 2023, many surplus anomalies are forecast to disappear, instead becoming mild to moderate deficits. Several areas are expected to endure more intense deficits, such as western Malaysia and eastern regions of Borneo. Southern coastal regions of the island of Sumatra are expected to observe moderate deficits, as well as the Philippine island of Mindanao. In East Nusa Tenggara, much of the area is expected to experience a mix of transitional conditions and surplus.

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2023 – expects normal conditions to mild anomalies to occur across much of the region, with severe deficits persisting in western Malaysia, as well as across Papua and Papua New Guinea.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The global rice market is expected to endure its largest deficit between supply and demand in 20 years, partially resulting from problematic weather conditions in Pakistan. According to a report from finance and insurance company Fitch Solutions, the price of rice averaged $17.30 per hundredweight (cwt) through 2023 so far this year, and is only expected to slightly go down to $14.50 in 2024. Charles Hart, an analyst from the company, stated, “At the global level, the most evident impact of the global rice deficit has been, and still is, decade-high rice prices.” 

During the week of April 16th, Bangladesh experienced its highest temperatures in almost 60 years. Nearby in India, 13 deaths were reported from heatstroke, as well as 2 in Thailand. Residents of Southeast Asia worry of the increasingly warm conditions, with one resident of Bangkok quoted as saying that the city’s recent heatwave was the hottest she had experienced in five years. Thailand’s Meteorological Department said that temperatures hit 44.6 degrees Celsius, in the Tak province on April 15, meeting its current record, with a warning that the heat wave would continue into the next week. 

Bangkok is also experiencing major flooding, with thousands of residents out of its population of over 11 million currently being affected. The city is highly susceptible to flooding, especially its poorer neighborhoods, in which inhabitants either abandon their places or move to higher grounds during floods, returning back to their flooded homes once the water recedes. A report from 2015 by Thailand's National Reform Council warns that Bangkok might be submerged in 15 years unless immediate action is taken.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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