Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Widespread deficits emerge throughout

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Widespread deficits emerge throughout

25 May 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for Southeast Asia indicates that intense deficits will cover much of Thailand, Indonesia, Papua, and Papua New Guinea. Surpluses are anticipated in the Philippines, southern Malaysia, and some southern, noncontiguous territories of the Lesser Sunda Islands.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected to occur in: 

  • Northeastern Thailand, with exceptional deficits occurring throughout the Nong Khai, Bueng Jan, and Udon Thani provinces. These anomalies continue further north into Laos, into regions near the city of Vienttaine. Deficits of lesser intensity are expected to cover the rest of the country. 

  • Northwestern Cambodia, with severe deficits appearing in regions northwest of the Tonlé Sap.

  • West-central Malaysia, throughout the state of Selangor and near the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur.

  • Indonesia, widespread across the island of Kalimantan, as well as western Java and southern Sumatra. 

  • Papua, throughout much of the country. Severe deficits are expected to occur in areas near the Pegunungan Bintang Regency.

  • Papua New Guinea, with exceptional deficits appearing in southeastern coastal regions bordering the Coral Sea. Further northeast, extreme deficits are expected in central regions of the Madang Province, as well as western areas of the West New Britain Province.

Areas expected to observe extreme to exceptional surplus include: 

  • Southeastern coastal regions of the state of Pahang in Malaysia.  

  • Southern Indonesia, throughout eastern Java and the Lesser Sunda Islands. 

  • The Philippines, throughout the islands consisting of the Eastern Samar region.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2023 anticipates severe to extreme transitional conditions to appear in central and northern Vietnam. Much of the surplus seen in the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Cambodia is expected to dissipate, becoming either normal conditions or mild to moderate deficits, primarily in central Malaysia and southern regions of the Indonesian province of Lampung. Surplus in eastern Java and the Lesser Sunda Islands are expected to persist. In Papua New Guinea, exceptional deficits in southeastern coastal regions bordering the Coral Sea are expected to continue, along with deficits in western areas of the West New Britain Province.

From August through October 2023, deficits throughout Indonesia are expected to broaden and intensify, upgrading to moderate to severe deficits across much of Kalimantan, southern Sumatra, and western Java. The states of Sarawak, Sabah, and the island of Brunei can expect similar deficits. Further east, Papua and Papua New Guinea are each expected to experience widespread deficits of moderate to severe intensity, with some exceptional deficits persisting along southern coastal regions of Papua New Guinea bordering the Coral Sea. 

The forecast for the final months – November 2023 through January 2024 – expects deficits to persist throughout Papua and Papua New Guinea, as well as the island of Java. Mild deficits are expected to continue in Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and throughout the Philippines, and similarly intense surpluses in Malaysia and northern Sumatra.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Provincial governor Narong Rojsothorn recently announced that the water level in the Kwan Phayao, the fourth biggest freshwater lake in Thailand, has dropped from 55.65 million cubic meters to 2.8 million. Lower water levels have also made it impossible for tourists to visit the Buddhist temple built in the center of the lake – Phayao’s top tourist attraction. The lake covers an area of about 20,530 square meters and is used for tap water and irrigation purposes. On May 4th, Narong coordinated with relevant agencies, including the Royal Irrigation Department, to channel nearly 2 million cubic meters of water from the Mae Tam reservoir into Kwan Phayao.

Heat waves continue throughout Asia, with many countries reporting record-high temperatures. Vietnam reported its highest ever temperature of 44.2 Celsius over the weekend, which prompted power shortage warnings. Laos also recently reported its hottest day in history with temperatures reaching 43.5 Celsius, as well as Thailand at 45.4 Celsius. Tieh-Yong Koh, an associate professor and weather and climate scientist at the Singapore University of Social Sciences, stated that the prolonged dryness across these countries is due to suppressed rainfall over the past winter.

The Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industries projected that Indonesia would observe its coffee production fall over 20% in year-over-year growth in 2023 due to excessive rainfall damaging its agricultural regions. Indonesia is the world's third-largest producer of robusta coffee, for which demand has increased due to its cheaper prices as consumers attempt to cope with high inflation. However, prices of robusta coffee soared to a record high May 22nd after the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected 2023-2024 Indonesian coffee production would fall 18% in year-over-year growth.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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