Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits throughout Mex, C America to continue

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits throughout Mex, C America to continue

24 May 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in January indicates widespread deficits across much of Mexico and Central America, mostly of mild to moderate intensity. However, intense surpluses are expected to emerge in the Caribbean.

The following areas are expected to experience deficits of varying intensity: 

  • Mexico, with mild to moderate deficits widespread throughout the country. In north-central Mexico, within the states of Chihuahua and Coahuila, pockets of severe to extreme deficits are expected to occur. Similarly intense deficits with a mixture of exceptional transitional conditions are anticipated to appear in northern Baja California Sur. 

  • Guatemala, with the moderate deficits occurring throughout the San Luis municipality. 

  • El Salvador, with moderate deficits throughout much of the country. 

  • Western Nicaragua, throughout the Chinandega department. 

  • Southern Belize, with moderate deficits appearing in the Toledo district.

  • Western Costa Rica, throughout the Guanacaste Province.

Areas forecast to experience extreme to exceptional surpluses include: 

  • Most islands of the Bahamas.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2023 anticipates mild to moderate deficits to continue throughout Mexico, as well as most of Central America. Isolated areas of severe to extreme deficits are expected to continue in the Mexican states of Chihuahua and Coahuila, as well as further south in eastern areas of the state of Veracruz. In the Caribbean, southern Jamaica is expected to endure exceptional deficits, while much of the Bahamas can expect extreme to exceptional surpluses throughout the majority of both regions. Western Costa Rica is expected to observe moderate to severe transitional conditions, with central Baja California Sur experiencing exceptional transitional conditions. 

From August through October 2023 expects existing deficits in Central America to intensify, reaching severe to extreme levels in eastern Guatemala, Belize, western Honduras, and west-central Nicaragua. Transitional conditions in central Baja California Sur are expected to continue. 

The forecast for the final months – November 2023 through January 2024 – indicates that deficits throughout Central America will mostly downgrade, returning to mild to moderate levels. Transitional conditions in Baja California Sur are expected to change into exceptional surpluses. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Regional drought is causing container vessels in the Panama Canal to lighten cargo and pay higher fees, with more cost increases expected to occur in the summer. In late May, Neo-Panamax vessels, the largest ships that travel the canal, will be allowed up to a 44.5 feet draft, or how low they sit in the water, down from an already restricted 45 feet. The draft limit will decline again to 44 feet at the end of May. Vessels reduce their drafts by carrying less or cutting the weight of their cargoes. Rainfall was less than 50% of normal from February to April in the area, which ties with 2019, which saw the lowest rainfall level in two decades.

A several month long drought and lack of fertilization resources has hit Mexican sugarcane plantations, which has shrunk this year’s expected yield compared to an earlier estimate. Mexico’s 2022 to 2023 sugar harvest is now expected to be near 5.43 million tonnes, which is a 10% decrease from the initial forecast from 6.026 million tonnes. The previous year’s harvest yielded 6.185 million tonnes. Carlos Blackaller, leader of the country's largest sugarcane farmers organization, said that the initial estimate took an additional 30,000 hectares of expected planting area into account, but that "almost the entire country has been dry since October 2022, until this April," he said, causing the planting area to shrink. National water agency Conagua's most recent drought report showed nearly half the country was experiencing varying levels of drought, mostly moderate to severe, at the end of March.

Climate specialists warn that the likely occurrence of El Niño conditions this summer will not stop major storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean. Though El Niño is typically associated with drought, the Caribbean Sea is currently unusually warm, which may cause strong hurricanes to develop. While storm forecasters at Colorado State University are expecting a somewhat quieter-than-average hurricane season, they are still uncertain. The conflict in weather patterns has experts at the UWI Global Institute for Climate Smart and Resilient Development and the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) anticipate that the region could experience a much more active season than is being suggested, where residents are already experiencing intense drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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