Middle East: Intense transitional conditions persist in Saudi Arabia, Yemen

Middle East: Intense transitional conditions persist in Saudi Arabia, Yemen

26 May 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in January indicates that much of the Middle East will experience extreme to exceptional transitional conditions, as well as pockets of exceptional deficits in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman. Surpluses of similar intensity are expected to emerge in areas within Syria, Iraq, and Iran.

Extreme to exceptional transitional conditions are expected in the following areas: 

  • Western Iraq, throughout the Ar-Rutba District.

  • Saudi Arabia, widespread throughout the country. Similarly intense anomalies also cover nearby Yemen.

  • Central Oman, in coastal regions of the Al Wusta Governorate.

  • Northeastern coastal regions of Turkey. 

Deficits of varying intensity are expected to occur in: 

  • United Arab Emirates, with exceptional deficits covering most of the country. 

  • Southeast Saudi Arabia, with exceptional deficits throughout the Al Udayd region.

  • Eastern Iran, with exceptional deficits in the southeast regions of Nehbandan County. Similarly intense deficits can be found further north near the city of Mashad, as well as in southeastern coastal regions along the Gulf of Oman. 

  • Qatar, which is expected to experience widespread severe deficits throughout the country. 

  • Western Turkey, with severe to exceptional deficits occurring near the Mersin region. Similar deficits can be expected further northwest near the city of Eskişehir.

Areas expected to observe extreme to exceptional surplus include: 

  • Northern Iraq, in areas near the city of Kirkuk.

  • Western Iran, throughout the Ilam Province and along the country’s shared border with Iraq.

  • Central Syria, in northern areas of the Tadmur district. 

  • East-central Turkey, near the city of Şanlıurfa.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2023 anticipates widespread transitional conditions in Saudi Arabia and Yemen to continue, with exceptional deficits occurring in western Oman and small southeastern areas of Saudi Arabia. Transitional conditions in northern Saudi Arabia are also expected to persist. Exceptional surpluses in central Syria, northern Iraq, and western Iran are expected to continue, with eastern Iran forecast to endure mild to moderate deficits. 

From August through October 2023 expects transitional conditions to linger in south-central to northeastern Saudi Arabia, which will also experience pockets of exceptional deficits through the Najran province and into Wadi Ad Dawasir. In northern Saudi Arabia, the Hail region is expected to endure similarly intense deficits with a mixture of mild transitional conditions. Exceptional surpluses in central Syria are expected to change, becoming transitional conditions. However, extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Iraq and eastern Iran are expected to continue. 

The forecast for the final months – November 2023 through January 2024 – indicates that transitional conditions in Saudi Arabia will mostly disappear, with exceptional deficits emerging in south-central regions of the country, as well as the governorate of Umluj. Similarly intense deficits are expected in southern coastal regions of Oman, with transitional conditions continuing in western Yemen.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani stated that Iraq is urgently seeking assistance in preventing exhaustion of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. “Saving the Tigris and Euphrates requires an urgent international intervention,” Al-Sudani said. “We need efforts of all friends in the countries and organizations to help Iraq in this critical time of its two great rivers’ history.” Al-Sudani announced a climate strategy lasting to 2030 which will assist in reducing environmental damage, incentivizing use of modern irrigation technologies, and using renewable energy. Plans were also announced to start a desalination project to make up for inadequate supply from the rivers.

On May 25th, the head of the Iraqi parliamentary committee on health and environment stated concern that Iraq could potentially face severe water scarcity in 2035, with shortages reaching 11 billion cubic meters. "A serious problem awaits us. In 2035, water shortages may reach 11 billion cubic meters. This will greatly affect the food security and national security of Iraq," Majed Khalaf Hamo Masto said at the 10th Nevsky International Ecological Congress. 

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast across the Arabian Peninsula at least through May 24th. The affected areas include Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Since the beginning of May, 24 people in Yemen have been killed due to flooding, along with major damage to farms, houses, and cars. Some local media report the death toll in May to be over 40. Similarly, officials issued an alert for the same areas which warn of excessive rainfall and landslides in mountainous regions of the country.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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