South Asia: Exceptional surplus continues in Pakistan

South Asia: Exceptional surplus continues in Pakistan

26 May 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in January 2024 indicates major water surpluses to continue in Pakistan and regions of Afghanistan, which reach into smaller areas of India. Other regions including India, Bangladesh, and western Afghanistan can anticipate deficits of varying intensity. 

Extreme to exceptional surplus is anticipated in the following areas: 

  • Pakistan, spanning the vast majority of the country. Southern and central regions are expected to endure the most dense areas of anomalies. 

  • Eastern Afghanistan, with anomalies spanning areas of most eastern provinces, from the southeastern province of Kandahar into Konar, located in the east. 

  • Northernmost India, throughout the region of Ladakh.

  • Southern coastal regions of Sri Lanka. 

  • Central Nepal, in areas near the municipality of Lo Manthang.

Several areas can expect deficits of varying intensity, including: 

  • Western to northwestern Afghanistan, with moderate deficits expected near western regions of the Nimruz province, into eastern regions of the Farah, Herat, Badghis, and Faryab provinces. Deficits of exceptional intensity are expected in each of the provinces’ western areas. 

  • Northeastern India, throughout eastern areas of the state of Meghalaya, as well as western to central Manipur. 

  • Southern India, throughout the state of Kerala and spread further east, into western Tamil Nadu and near the coastal town of Kanyakumari. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2023 anticipates intense surplus and transitional conditions in Pakistan to persist. These surpluses continue north, persisting in eastern regions of Afghanistan. Surplus in the northernmost Indian region of Ladakh is expected to continue, moving further north across the Pakistani border into areas near the city of Skardu. Exceptional deficits are expected to continue in northeastern India in eastern Meghalaya and western to central Manipur. In southern India, extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in northern Tamil Nadu, with extreme to exceptional surpluses appearing further north, near the city of Bengaluru.

From August through October 2023, surpluses in southern and central India will disappear, with small areas of severe deficits emerging in south-central India. Exceptional surpluses will continue in eastern Pakistan, with transitional conditions spreading throughout western Pakistan. In addition to nearby, intense transitional conditions, eastern areas of Pakistan’s Chagai district can anticipate exceptional deficits.

The forecast for the final months – November 2023 through January 2024 – anticipates exceptional deficits to emerge in western and northwestern India, with existing deficits persisting in northeastern India. Extreme to exceptional transitional conditions, along with similarly intense surpluses, are expected to continue in Pakistan, eastern Afghanistan, and northern India.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Pakistan's National Disaster Management Authority predicts a 72% chance of devastating floods this year. This prediction follows the country’s catastrophic 2022 flooding, regarded as the worst in its history. The 2022 floods destroyed 2.1 million homes, as well as significant agricultural areas and infrastructure. Six months later, infrastructure has still not been rebuilt, and according to UNICEF, more than 10 million people in flood-affected areas still lack access to safe drinking water. Additionally, more than 89,000 people were reported as displaced at the beginning of 2023. 

At least 13 people have been killed and dozens injured as a result of torrential rains and flash floods in Afghanistan. In the Ghor province, one of the the worst affected areas, six deaths were reported. Central regions of the country reported more than 100 houses damaged and about 200 hectares of agricultural land destroyed, as well as canals used for irrigation. These floods are likely to exacerbate the existing economic crisis in the country, where millions are afflicted by food insecurity.

Nepal and Bangladesh are set to sign a memorandum of understanding in which they will share real-time data on weather and floods in an effort to help each other avoid monsoon-induced disasters. This data sharing would allow the two countries to develop plans to save lives and property. “The signing of the MoU is scheduled in the first week of June,” said Gopal Sigdel, secretary of the Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation. Officials said once the MoU is signed, it will be the first time that Nepal shares its data on floods and weather with another country.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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