Middle East: Intense transitional conditions persist throughout Saudi Arabia

29 June 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in February for the Middle East anticipates widespread transitional conditions throughout most of the central regions, with intense surplus appearing in northern areas, as well as isolated deficits of varying intensity.

Transitional conditions are expected to appear in:

Saudi Arabia and Yemen, widespread throughout both countries.
Western Iraq, in regions west of the Euphrates River.
East-central Iran, in the Kerman Province.

Exceptional deficits are forecast in the following areas:

West-central Oman, within the Dhofar Governorate.
Southeastern Saudi Arabia, in the Al Udeid region, crossing into most of the United Arab Emirates.
Central to northeastern Iran, in the South Khorasan Province.

Instances of exceptional surplus are anticipated in:

Syria, in most central regions of the country.
Eastern Turkey, in areas surrounding the Firat River.
Western Iran, in regions west of the Karkheh River.
Northern Iraq, surrounding the city of Erbil and other areas north of the Tigris River.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 12-month forecast ending in February for the Middle East anticipates widespread transitional conditions throughout most of the central regions, with intense surplus appearing in northern areas, as well as isolated deficits of varying intensity.

Transitional conditions are expected to appear in:

Saudi Arabia and Yemen, widespread throughout both countries.
Western Iraq, in regions west of the Euphrates River.
East-central Iran, in the Kerman Province.

Exceptional deficits are forecast in the following areas:

West-central Oman, within the Dhofar Governorate.
Southeastern Saudi Arabia, in the Al Udeid region, crossing into most of the United Arab Emirates.
Central to northeastern Iran, in the South Khorasan Province.

Instances of exceptional surplus are anticipated in:

Syria, in most central regions of the country.
Eastern Turkey, in areas surrounding the Firat River.
Western Iran, in regions west of the Karkheh River.
Northern Iraq, surrounding the city of Erbil and other areas north of the Tigris River.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

IMPACTS
The Iraqi government is still working to cope with the country’s water scarcity crisis due to the continued decline of water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Pictures of the rivers have recently surfaced that show the bottom of both rivers, which have receded to the point that an individual can cross from one bank to the other on foot. This was previously impossible, as bridges or boats were required to cross the rivers. Available water for Iraq is expected to decline to 51 billion cubic meters, falling significantly short of Iraq’s water needs at 71 billion cubic meters, and even the 53 billion cubic meter requirement for minimum water consumption.

Two deaths were reported in Turkey after intense floods in the Black Sea provinces saw substantial increases in water levels due to heavy rain. The Bozkurt district recorded 127.5 mm of rainfall in a 24 hour period up until June 5th, while the İnebolu district recorded 99.6 mm during the same period. In the Ladik district, one person died after being swept away from a bridge over a flooding stream. In the Amasya province, three individuals were caught in severe floods in Kızılkışlacık village. As of June 5th, the body of one victim had been found, while emergency crews continued their search for other missing persons. In the Kastamonu Province, one individual died after being swept away from a bridge over a flooding stream in the Ladik district.

Water shortages are being reported in Iran’s capital, Tehran, after a recent flood from heavy rainfall caused terrain shifts in the mountains and rendered a section of the Karaj dam inaccessible, which stifled the city’s water supply. Some parts of Tehran were described to have experienced prolonged water scarcity lasting almost a week, and that residents did not have sufficient warning. Lack of prior notice has exacerbated the difficulties faced by residents, leaving them to endure the scorching heat without a reliable water source. Temperatures in the city are already exceeding 30 degrees Celsius, and one resident of Tehran reported that they had been experiencing water cuts for several hours every night over the past few days.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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