South Asia: Intense surplus continues throughout Pakistan

South Asia: Intense surplus continues throughout pakistan

30 June 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in February anticipates intense surplus to persist throughout most of the region’s northwestern areas. Widespread, mostly mild deficits are expected to persist across the majority of the remaining areas.

Exceptional surplus is expected in the following areas:

  • Pakistan, throughout much of the country.

  • Central to eastern Afghanistan, stretching from the central province of Uruzgan into the provinces of Zabul, Paktika, and Wardak. 

  • Northern India, throughout the region of Jammu and Kashmir. 

  • Central Nepal, near the Dhaulagiri Mountain Range. 

  • Southern coastal regions of Sri Lanka. 

The forecast predicts notable deficits to occur in: 

  • Southern and northern India, with extreme to exceptional deficits occurring in the state of Kerala. Similarly intense deficits are expected in southern Uttar Pradesh, near the Yamuna River, and southern regions of the state of Orissa.

  • Northeastern India, with severe to extreme deficits in the state of Assam.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2023 anticipates a mix of exceptional surplus and transitional conditions in much of Pakistan, with some exceptional deficits appearing in the southwestern province of Baluchistan. Existing surplus anomalies throughout Pakistan spread across the country’s border into much of eastern Afghanistan. Transitional conditions will persist in southern India, near the Tungabhadra River, with severe to extreme deficits appearing in the state of Tamil Nadu. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to continue in the eastern Indian state of Assam. 

From September through November 2023, a mixture of exceptional surplus and transitional conditions are expected to continue throughout Pakistan. In eastern Afghanistan, severe to extreme surplus is expected to persist, carrying over into northern India. Most intense anomalies throughout India are anticipated to disappear, with mild deficits continuing across much of the country. 

The forecast for the final months – December 2023 through February 2024 – expects exceptional surplus and transitional conditions to continue in Pakistan, and exceptional deficits to occur in western and south-central India. Severe to extreme surplus is expected to continue in eastern Afghanistan and northern India.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Recent intense flooding in India has ravaged the northeastern state of Assam. As of June 26th, the death toll was reportedly at least five, while around 3,000 locals were displaced. Local Nabajyoti Talukdar lost his home in the deluge, stating that he now has to “start from zero.” "Our books and documents have been damaged and our houses have been completely destroyed,” says Talukdar. “We are all living in the relief shelter here. We have lost everything and now have to start again from zero. All our means of livelihood have been lost - we had a fishery, cows, and cattle - everything has drowned in the floodwater." In neighboring Pakistan, at least 13 people have been killed and 17 others injured in flood-related accidents as of June 26th.

Climate change is melting Pakistan’s glaciers at a dangerous pace, causing dangerous flash floods in the region. Local Muhammad Luqman expressed concern, stating that at the rate the glaciers are melting, 15,000 people would potentially be put in danger from flooding. There are over 7,000 glaciers in Pakistan – one of the highest totals for any country. According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), over 3,000 lakes had formed in Pakistan due to melting glaciers by 2018. 33 of these lakes are considered a flood risk, which could potentially endanger over 7 million people living downstream.

Recent flash floods in Afghanistan killed at least five people and injured two more in the Parwan, Nangarhar, Paktika, Logar, and Wardak provinces. The floods also destroyed several houses and damaged agricultural areas. Earlier this month, at least six people died, and eight others were injured in eight provinces of the country over heavy rains and flooding. The previous flash floods hit the Badakhshan, Paktia, Kunar, Bamyan, Ghor, Takhar, Nuristan and Parwan provinces.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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