Europe: Surplus emerges in S Europe, W Balkans

27 July 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in March 2024 anticipates intense concentrations of deficit in isolated areas of northern and central Continental Europe, as well as similarly intense surpluses in southern Europe.

Severe to extreme deficits is expected in the following countries:

Throughout the Baltics and continuing into northern Belarus.
Southwest Portugal, near the city of Lisbon.
Northeast France into southeastern Belgium, Luxembourg, and central Germany.
Central to southern Sweden, appearing in Dalarna County and spreading far south into Skåne County, and eastern Norway, near the city of Oslo.
Northern Switzerland, in areas west of Zurich.

Extreme to exceptional surplus is predicted to occur in the following regions:

Western Balkans, spreading through North Macedonia, Kosovo, and southern Serbia.
Italy, appearing throughout the Basilicata, Crotone, and Cosenza provinces, as well as near the city of Messina. These surpluses continue further north along Italy’s eastern coast, expanding into areas near the city of Bologna.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits in northeastern France, Luxembourg, and Belgium to increase in magnitude. Exceptional surplus throughout the Balkans, Italy, are expected to expand in magnitude and intensity, covering much of both regions in exceptional surplus. Additionally, moderate to severe deficits in the Baltics, Belarus, and southern Sweden are expected to continue.

From October through December 2023, most intense surpluses in Continental Europe are expected to disappear, though moderate to severe deficits will still remain in southeastern Germany and the Balkans. Deficits throughout Sweden, Belarus, and eastern Finland will linger but downgrade into mostly moderate anomalies.

The forecast for the final months – January 2024 through March 2024 – anticipates that intense anomalies across Continental Europe will dissipate, becoming normal conditions and pockets of mild surplus.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Heatwaves are present across much of southern Europe, with temperatures in Spain reaching 109 degrees Fahrenheit on July 18th. In an effort to cope with the region’s extreme heat, Spanish communities have started using a network of historic irrigation canals, which were built by the Moors, a Muslim population that resided in the Iberian Peninsula during the Middle Ages. The channels are called “acequias,” from the Arabic word “as-saqiya,” which translates to water conduit. Due to these channels, Spain, which has experienced intense, prolonged drought, has supplemented their water supply and improved agriculture in the Andalusia region. “The acequias have been able to withstand at least a thousand years of climate, social and political change,” said archeologist and historian José María Martín Civantos. “So why do without it now?”

Nearby, Germany is experiencing similarly intense heat waves and drought. As water levels in major rivers drop, wildfires appear, and restrictions on water consumption are put in place, Germany is expected to experience events similar to the events of 2018 – during which the country’s hottest and driest conditions ever were recorded. As Europe is the world’s fastest warming continent, experts have warned of the impending complications, such as heat-related deaths, low crop yields, and climate policy being pushed to the forefront of governmental matters.

Italian farmers are facing major adversity due to climate change. One farmer, Andrea Ferrini, reported deaths of fruit and corn crops due to hard frosts, destructive rainfall, and record-breaking floods, which were followed by extreme heat waves. "It has certainly been a disastrous year," said Ferrini. "Making money from my farm is becoming difficult with this changing climate. Even planning for future years is becoming really challenging." In 2023, Ferrini is expected to harvest no more than 20,000-30,000 kilograms of fruit and grapes – a drastic decrease of normal yields, which total around 100,000 kilograms.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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