Southeast Asia & the Pacific: intense deficits continue in mainland SE Asia

21 September 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in May 2024 anticipates intense deficits to occur in central areas of Mainland Southeast Asia, and widespread moderate deficits throughout most of Maritime Southeast Asia.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in several areas, including:

Thailand, throughout most of the country’s northern provinces. These deficits continue spreading southwest into the province of Kanchanaburi, as well as into the northeastern province of Loei.
Central Vietnam, across the entirety of the Quảng Bình Province.
Eastern Laos, in eastern regions of the Houaphanh Province.

Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in:

Indonesia, throughout southern Sumatra, western Java, Sulawesi, and Kalimantan.
The Philippines, throughout most of the country’s islands.
South-central Myanmar, in regions near the city of Naypyidaw. Mostly moderate deficits continue further north into areas near the city of Mandalay.
Papua New Guinea, across most of the Gulf and Western Province, as well as further north near the April Salome Forest Management Area.

Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the following countries:

Malaysia, with extreme to exceptional surpluses occurring throughout the states of Terengganu, Kelantan, and Pahang.
Southern Thailand, with extreme to exceptional surpluses appearing in southernmost regions of the Yala and Narathiwat provinces.
Indonesia, with moderate surpluses appearing in the North Sumatra province.
Northern Cambodia, in regions near the Kulen Prum Tep Wildlife Sanctuary.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2023 expects deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia to mostly resolve to near normal conditions. However, widespread deficits are expected to appear across most of Maritime Southeast Asia, with the highest concentrations appearing in southern Sumatra, western Java, north-central Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and across Papua and Papua New Guinea. Small areas of moderate surplus are expected in northern Cambodia, as well as eastern Malaysia and northern Sumatra.

From December through February 2024, severe to extreme deficits are expected to continue in southern Sumatra, western Java, and southern Kalimantan. Deficits across Papua New Guinea are expected to remain but lessen in intensity and magnitude, but continue throughout most of its eastern provinces. Surpluses are expected to emerge in Malaysia, with severe to extreme surpluses occurring primarily in the Kelantan province. Coastal regions in northwestern Kalimantan and northern Sumatra can also expect moderate to severe surpluses to emerge.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2024 – anticipates that most regions will observe near-normal conditions, with some moderate to severe deficits occurring in eastern Kalimantan, southern Philippines, northern Sulawesi, and southern coastal regions of Papua New Guinea near the town of Daru. Surpluses of moderate to severe intensity are expected to linger in northwestern Kalimantan, spreading further down the coast of West Kalimantan. Surpluses of similar intensity are expected in the Bangka Belitung Islands, as well as western and central regions of Java.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Thailand’s economy and poverty rate is expected to worsen as record-breaking temperatures and lower than average rainfall hits the country. Droughts caused by the El Niño weather event have dried up agricultural areas, jeopardizing yields of the country’s key crops, including rice, corn and sugarcane. According to Kiatanantha Lounkaew, an economic lecturer from the Thammasat University in Bangkok, the droughts from El Niño will harm the Thai economy. “The household incomes of those who cultivate these crops are low,” Lounkaew stated. “Thus, this effect could result in persistent poverty. Impoverished households will not have sufficient resources to mitigate the effects of the drought." Nearly 40% of Thai farmers reportedly live below the poverty line.

The heat brought about by the El Niño weather event has also affected harvests in Indonesia. As heat persists in the region, concern grows over the price of rice, a staple food for the majority of Indonesia’s 270 million people. If conditions do not improve, prices could hit a multi-year high, an equivalent $1.33 a kilogram, as projected by Zulkifly Rasyid, chairman of a cooperative of rice wholesalers in Indonesia’s largest market of Cipinang. Only 1.5 million metric tonnes of the grain have arrived from an estimated total of 2.3 million that Indonesia authorized in 2023 to blunt the impact of El Nino. 400,000 tonnes of rice are expected to still be on the way, while 400,000 tonnes are yet to be contracted.

Several areas of the Malaysian state of Penang were hit by flash floods and strong winds on the morning of September 4th, causing severe traffic, damage to houses, and destruction of local vegetation. Many areas were flooded up to 50 centimeters, including Jalan Datuk Keramat, Jalan Rangoon, Jalan Magazine, and Jalan Transfer. Some mainland areas were also affected, such as Bukit Mertajam, Teluk Air Tawar, Pokok Sena, and Kuala Muda.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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