ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List October 2023

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST October 2023

18 October 2023

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in July 2023 and running through June 2024 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List October 18, 2023 (pdf).

United States:  Exceptional deficits are expected to linger in northern midwestern states throughout December 2023 or longer.

Canada: Exceptional deficits are expected to linger in most provinces throughout March 2024 or longer.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Mexico is expected to experience persisting widespread exceptional deficits throughout March 2024 or longer.

South America:  Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to occur in northwestern Brazil and in pockets throughout the Bolivarian Nations until December 2023 or longer.

Europe:  Severe to extreme deficits are expected to occur in most of Continental Europe until December 2023 or longer, while moderate to extreme surplus is expected in Finland, Norway, and Sweden until March 2024 or longer.

Africa: Severe to extreme surplus is expected to continue in Tanzania and neighboring regions until June 2024 or longer.

Middle East: Exceptional deficits are expected to occur throughout southern regions until December 2024 or longer.  

Central Asia and Russia: Exceptional deficits are expected to linger in pockets of the Ural region throughout March 2024 or longer.

South Asia: Most regions can anticipate near-normal conditions, while pockets of central India can expect moderate surplus throughout March 2024 or longer.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to occur throughout much of Maritime Southeast Asia until December 2023 or longer.

East Asia: Northern regions of China can anticipate exceptional deficits throughout December 2023 or longer.

Australia & New Zealand:  Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected to occur in northern regions of Australia throughout December 2023 or longer.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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