Canada: Widespread deficits to continue in most provinces

30 October 2023
The 12-month forecast ending in June 2024 anticipates intense deficits to occur throughout most provinces, with some decrease in extent in the western provinces.

The map on top depicts long-term deficit and surplus anomalies as of September 2023, while the map on the bottom depicts a forecast of long-term deficits and surpluses as of June 2024.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Central and northeastern British Columbia, in the Northern Rockies and eastern Bulkley-Nechako
Regions, into northern and southern Alberta.

Saskatchewan, widespread throughout the province, into central Manitoba, north of Lake Winnipeg.
Northeastern Ontario, along the coast of the Hudson Bay, and further inland into much of the Cochrane District. These deficits continue into northeastern areas of the province into eastern Rivière-Koksoak into northern coastal regions of Newfoundland.
Northwestern Territories, widespread throughout the province, into northernmost areas of Yukon and Nunavut’s Kitikmeot Region.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2023 anticipates widespread deficits to continue throughout most provinces. Central and northeastern British Columbia are expected to observe continued exceptional deficits, as well as northern and southern Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and central Manitoba, in areas northwest of Lake Winnipeg. Exceptional deficits are also expected to occur in southwestern to northeastern regions of Ontario, covering most areas of the province, which also occur along the coast of the Hudson Bay into western Quebec. Northernmost areas of Newfoundland can expect similarly intense deficits. Further north, much of Baffin Island and southernmost areas of the Qikiqtaaluk Region can expect severe to exceptional surpluses.

From January through March 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to persist in central and northeastern British Columbia, northern and southern Alberta, and widespread throughout Saskatchewan. These deficits are expected to continue east into Manitoba, in areas northwest of Lake Winnipeg. Much of southwestern to northeastern Ontario is expected to observe exceptional deficits as well, which continue along the coast of the Hudson Bay into regions of western Quebec. Baffin Island should anticipate widespread surplus throughout the area, with the most intense anomalies occurring on its northern coast, Cape Dorset, and western coastal regions of Pangnirtung.

The forecast for the final months – April 2024 through June 2024 – expects northeastern British Columbia and northern Alberta to experience continued severe to exceptional deficits, while similarly intense deficits in central to northern Alberta will decrease in magnitude, only remaining in regions west of Reindeer Lake and Lac La Ronge. Similarly intense deficits are expected to continue but similarly decrease in magnitude in Manitoba, northwest of Lake Winnipeg, as are northeastern coastal regions of Ontario along the Hudson Bay. In Nunavut, most central regions of the Kitikmeot Region are expected to endure extreme to exceptional deficits. Further west, deficits widespread throughout Northwest Territories are expected to linger but decrease in severity, becoming moderate to severe deficits. Northern Yukon can expect severe to extreme deficits to linger.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Persistent drought in British Columbia is causing rivers in its northern regions to reach the lowest mid-October water levels in years. In Prince George, water levels have diminished enough to worry locals. Wayne Salewski of the Nechako Environment and Water Stewardship Society stated that the river is at its driest for this time of year in decades, describing the confluence of the two Prince George rivers as “horridly low.” "Everything is going to pay the price for that, continued Salewski. "Our streams are dry right now." The shallower and warmer waters will harm salmon, sturgeon, and people whose livelihoods depend on healthy rivers.”

Drought that occurred in regions of the Canadian Prairies during this year’s growing season caused feed shortages, prompting farmers to use feed alternatives for beef cattle, such as canola by-products, like hay, greenfeed, meal, hay, or straw. Canada’s two biggest beef producers, Alberta and Saskatchewan, were intensely affected by the drought. They make up nearly 49% and 29% of the national herd respectively. Estimates of the first cut average dryland yield in Alberta reached 0.9 tons per acre, which is 40% below the ten year average. As of October 3rd, 86% was yielded from the first dryland hay cut this season, and only 14% from the second.

On October 20th, the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food, Lawrence MacAulay, announced the allocation of $219 million in governmental support to assist farmers in western Canada dealing with intense drought. The funding will be used to help them recover and have the necessary tools to build resilience during extreme weather events. In British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchean, the current growing season has been hit particularly hard with prolonged drought and wildfires.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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