Middle East: Deficits continue in S Arabian Peninsula

Middle East: Deficits continue in S Arabian Peninsula

28 November 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in July 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to expand significantly across southern Saudi Arabia, covering much of Yemen, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. Exceptional deficits are also expected to retreat in eastern Iran.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Saudi Arabia, in most regions south of Riyadh. 

  • Yemen and Oman, widespread throughout both countries. 

  • Eastern Iran, in areas within the Kerman Province. 

  • Northern coastal regions of Turkey along the Black Sea. 

Moderate to severe deficits are expected in the following regions: 

  • Jordan, in most southern areas of the country. 

  • Western to central Iraq, specifically in areas near Razzaza Lake. 

  • Syria, in areas of the Homs and al-Hasakah Governorates.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will decrease in size, but continue throughout Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh Province, as well as much of Oman. South-central and western Yemen can expect isolated deficits of similar intensity. Further north, exceptional deficits along Turkey’s northern coast are expected to linger. In Iran, southwestern regions can expect moderate to severe surpluses, while northwestern regions of Iran, near the city of Mashbad, can expect exceptional deficits. 

From February through April 2024, exceptional deficits in most of Saudi Arabia are expected to vanish, though will still remain widespread throughout most of Oman and central to eastern Yemen. Otherwise, most of the region can anticipate near-normal to moderate deficit conditions. 

The forecast for the final months – May 2024 through July 2024 – anticipates near-normal to moderate deficit conditions to continue in most of the Middle East, though some pockets of exceptional deficits are expected to re-emerge in southwestern regions of Saudi Arabia, western Yemen, and southern coastal regions of Oman. Similar deficits are expected to arise in southwestern Iran.  

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Iran, Iraq, and Syria have experienced persistent, intense drought for years due to successive low rainfall levels and high temperatures. These conditions caused crops to fail and water shortages to arise across the region, jeopardizing food security for millions of people. A recent study showed that between July 2020 and June 2023, climate change exacerbated these conditions, particularly due to high temperatures drying out soil. In the Tigris-Euphrates river basin, researchers observed that climate change increased the likelihood of drought from a one-in-250 to a one-in-10 year event. Scientists described droughts of this intensity as becoming “not rare anymore.”

In Iran specifically, nearly a quarter of Iranian farmers have lost their jobs because of drought. Scientists from Iran, the United Kingdom, America, and the Netherlands described the drought, which extended for three years – from July 2020 to now – was “the second worst drought experienced by these three countries.” Frederic Otto, a representative of Imperial College London, stated of the region, “After very good rains in 2020 and good crops, three years of very low rainfall followed by very high temperatures led to a drought that had very severe impacts on land access. Agriculture to drinking water.”

In western Iraq, Lake Ana is experiencing unprecedented drought, which threatens local agriculture and livestock. The drought has affected cities and districts of the governorate bordering three Arab countries – Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Desertification and drought are assumed to have caused the loss of lakes and bodies of water in the governatore. The city administration of Anah believes that the decline of water levels in the Euphrates River shows that an economic catastrophe threatens agriculture and livestock, and that continuous decline in levels is a responsibility that the government and relevant ministries must bear to save the region.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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