South Asia: Near-normal conditions expected throughout most regions

South Asia: Near-normal conditions expected throughout most regions

28 November 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in July 2024 anticipates mostly near normal conditions throughout much of the region, with some exceptional deficits occurring in Pakistan and east-central India. Surpluses in central India are expected to dissipate, but will reappear in southernmost regions of the country. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following regions: 

  • Southern Pakistan, in the Tharparkar District of the Sindh Province. Western regions of the country, specifically in the province of Balochistan, can anticipate similarly intense deficits. 

  • East-central India, in southeastern regions of the state of Uttar Pradesh.

  • Western India, in the coastal city of Mumbai.

Moderate to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • Southern India, in southernmost regions of the state of Tamil Nadu. 

  • Western India, in western coastal regions of the state of Gujarat. 

  • Sri Lanka, throughout much of the country.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2024, isolated pockets of severe to extreme surplus are expected to manifest in central India, while extreme to exceptional surplus is expected to continue in southern regions of the state of Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka. Exceptional deficits in southeastern Pakistan are expected to persist, continuing to spread into nearby western Indian states. Further east, much of Bangladesh is expected to experience moderate to severe deficits. 

From February through April 2024, intense deficits in Pakistan and India are expected to disappear, though moderate to extreme surpluses are expected to linger in west-central and southern India. Additionally, northernmost Indian states can expect an emergence of severe to extreme deficits. 

The forecast for the final months – May 2024 through July 2024 – the region can anticipate continued near-normal conditions, though moderate to severe surpluses are expected to occur in Gujarat and southern Rajasthan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Over a quarter of India is experiencing an expanding drought, as 26% of the country is currently experiencing dry conditions. This follows record-breaking global temperatures observed in October which exacerbate drought-related issues in the region further.  According to the National Center for Environmental Information of NOAA, drought conditions were confirmed over northern, eastern and coastal southwestern parts of India in October, which affect about 26.3% of the nation. This represents an increase from the 21.6% of the country that was gripped by drought in September. Affecting virtually all states except Rajasthan and Punjab.

Hundreds of thousands of Afghans have left Pakistan in recent weeks due to new anti-migrant policies set in place by Pakistani officials. This mass displacement has affected the community’s access to potable water, as the two main destinations for migrants lack proper water resources, efficient shelter, heating sources, and appropriate sanitation. U.N. agencies and affiliated groups are currently setting up facilities with thousands of people entering Afghanistan every day.

As of November 27th, 23 injuries have been reported in the Indian state of Gujarat due to intense rainfall and flooding. 24 deaths have also been reported in the area due to lightning strikes. Areas of Gujarat experienced intense rainfall over the weekend, with some regions receiving up to 5.7 inches of rain in just 24 hours. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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