Australia & New Zealand: Near-normal conditions expected in most regions

Australia & New Zealand: Near-normal conditions expected in most regions

30 November 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in July 2024 anticipates extreme to exceptional surpluses across Australia to disappear, with most regions expected to observe near normal conditions. Some western coastal regions of Western Australia, eastern coastal regions of New South Wales, and western Tasmania, are expected to experience varying levels of drought. Western Queensland and eastern Northern Territory can expect some lingering surplus.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following regions: 

  • Western coastal areas of Western Australia, in the Mid West region near the city of Geraldton. 

  • Eastern coastal regions of New South Wales, in areas near the Hastings River. 

  • Western Tasmania, throughout the Arthur-Pieman Conservation Area, which continues south across the country into the Southwest National Park. 

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in:

  • Western Queensland, near the locality of Lawn Hill.

  • Eastern Northern Territory, in the Nicholson region. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2024 expected most anomalies across Australia to continue to lessen in intensity and magnitude, though severe to extreme deficits are expected to continue in western Tanzania. Severe deficits are expected to expand in northern New Zealand.

From February through April 2024, near normal conditions are expected to further cover the majority of Australia, with intense anomalies similarly disappearing in Tasmania and New Zealand. 

The forecast for the final months – May 2024 through July 2024 – expects near normal conditions to persist across Australia, with pockets of exceptional surplus appearing across the Shire of Wyndham-East Kimberley.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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