Central Asia & Russia: Deficits persist in SW, E Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits persist in SW, E Russia

1 December 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in July 2024 indicates that intense deficits in central Russia will mostly retreat, and that deficits in southwestern and eastern Russia will persist, but decrease in area. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Southwestern Russia, in areas throughout the Sverdlovsk Oblast, Perm Krai, and the Republic of Tatarstan.

  • Northern Russia, throughout northern coastal regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. 

  • Southeastern Russia, throughout much of the Zabaykalsky Krai region.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Northern Russia, in central regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District.

  • Northeastern Russia, in the northernmost areas of the Irkutsk Oblast. 

  • Eastern portions of Kazakhstan, spreading further into the southern Siberian region of Russia.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue throughout the Sverdlovsk Oblast, southern Siberia, and throughout much of the Irkutsk Oblast. Exceptional surplus will continue in western to central regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, as well as in areas near the city of Krasnoyarsk and the Kirensky District. Exceptional surplus is expected to be widespread throughout eastern Kazakhstan, which spreads further east into southernmost regions of Siberia, as well as further south into northern Kyrgyzstan. 

From February through April 2024, widespread deficits are expected to continue throughout the Sverdlovsk Oblast, northern coastal regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, across southern Siberia, and throughout eastern regions of the Irkutsk Oblast. Surpluses ranging from severe to exceptional intensity are expected to linger in western to central areas of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, and in the Altai Krai. Surpluses in eastern Kazakhstan are expected to lessen in intensity but persist, instead transitioning to severe anomalies. 

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2024 – anticipates mostly normal conditions, with some severe to exceptional deficits dissipating, though persisting in coastal regions of northernmost Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, northern regions of the Beloyarsky District, and northern areas of Tyumen Oblast.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan anticipates that drought and floods in Central Asia could result in a 30% reduction in crop yields by 2050. Due to impending water shortages in Kazakhstan, local farmers are concerned about low harvests. “The situation is aggravated by the high level of water intensity of key sectors of our economy, especially agriculture. According to expert forecasts, by 2050, droughts and floods in Central Asia could lead to a 30% reduction in crop yields,” said Tokayev. According to Tokayev, the Kazakh agricultural sector uses more than 60% of water and is in desperate need of water-saving technologies.

Russian scientists have predicted that floods and extreme heat will occur early next year due to El Niño. Evgeniy Tishkovets, a leading specialist at the Phobos weather center, stated that “The natural phenomenon El Niño, which helped the world reach record heat this year and continues to worsen weather conditions, will continue into 2024.” Tishkovets continued, stating that the warming effect in the Pacific Ocean could cause an increase in global temperatures in the short term. El Niño is expected to last until at least April 2024, which is expected to catalyze abnormal heat conditions, drought, and fires, as well as heavy rains.

Fanagoria, one of Russia’s largest wine producers, reduced the seasons’ grape harvest by 22% due to summer drought. Nearly 36,000 tons of grapes were harvested – a 22% decrease from 2022’s yield of 46,215 tons. Agro-industrial firm Fanagoria OJSC (Krasnodar Territory), one of the largest wine-making enterprises in Russia, has completed harvesting grapes, collecting 36 thousand tons, the company’s press service reported.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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