United States: Exceptional deficits continue in Northern states, Midwest

21 February 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to diminish in most areas, but persist in some northern states and the Midwest. Extreme to exceptional surplus in western states are also expected to dissipate, becoming mostly normal to abnormal conditions.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

East-central Missouri, appearing in areas within the Mark Twain National Forest, continuing into south-central Illinois, central Indiana, and western Ohio, near Cincinnati.
Northwestern Alabama, near the city of Hamilton.
Western Montana, in western to central areas of the Flathead National Forest.
Northeastern Minnesota, in areas east of the Leech Lake Reservation. These deficits continue into northeastern Wisconsin, near the city of Marinette. Similarly intense deficits are expected to occur in Michigan, in northeastern regions of the Northern Lower Peninsula and eastern regions of the Upper Peninsula.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Southern Florida, near Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach.
Widespread throughout New Hampshire, Connecticut, Vermont, and western Massachusetts.
Alaska, within the Seward Peninsula and in eastern islands along the coast of the Gulf of Alaska.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2024 anticipates that exceptional deficits in southeastern states will disappear. Intense deficits are expected to linger in north-central Minnesota, northeastern Wisconsin, southern Colorado, and northern New Mexico. Northernmost regions of Maine can expect similarly intense deficits to appear. Severe to extreme surplus is expected to linger in western Montana, central Colorado, central Idaho, and in most coastal areas along the Gulf of Mexico. Northeastern states can also anticipate moderate to severe surplus. In Alaska, intense surplus is anticipated throughout most of the northern portions of the state, including the Seward Peninsula.

From May through July 2024, most instances of surplus are expected to dissipate, with most of the country experiencing near-normal to abnormal deficits. However, severe to extreme deficits are expected in western Montana, central to northern Minnesota, and northeastern Wisconsin. Pockets of surplus are expected to occur in central, northern, and southeastern Alaska, as well as western regions of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for the final months – August 2024 through October 2024 – indicates that most regions of the Continental United States will experience near-normal to abnormal deficits. Areas experiencing concentrations of moderate deficit include southern Alabama, Louisiana, western Montana, eastern North Dakota, and northwestern Minnesota. In the non-continental U.S., northern coastal regions of Alaska are expected to experience extreme to exceptional deficits. The majority of Puerto Rico is expected to observe severe to extreme surplus expanding to cover the majority of the state.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Southern California recently experienced intense rainfall, which provided relief from its current drought, but also worsened risk for future wildfires. Though local fish habitats and reservoirs have been replenished, the region lacks the storage capacity to retain the excess water, causing it to spill back into the Pacific Ocean. "It would be great if we could ask these atmospheric rivers to direct themselves to more convenient locations for our storage, but we can't do that," said Jay Famiglietti, a hydrologist at Arizona State University's Global Futures Laboratory. "We just have to take what we can get." The rain also promoted growth for widespread vegetation which is expected to dry out in the coming months, becoming fuel for wildfires. Even with the heavy rainfall, California experienced 29 brush fires in the week of January 29th alone.

A recent pine mortality survey conducted by the Mississippi Forestry Commission (MFC) reported over 12.5 million trees had died across 80,000 acres of land due to extreme drought. Along with the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, MFC surveyed an area of 13,010,098 acres, which contained 2,500,000 acres of pine trees. The tree deaths are thought to have been caused by stress on the trees resulting from the drought, as well as local beetles attacking the trees in their weakened state. The Homochitto National Forest Land is thought to be the hardest region hit due to high amounts of pine forest within the forest and extended drought conditions.

In January, Iowa experienced twice as much precipitation than normal, improving dry conditions in eastern regions of the state amid its fourth consecutive year of drought. During the beginning of January, nearly 35 percent of the state observed extreme drought, which has since shrunk to 17 percent. Additionally, the risk of flooding in the coming spring has been lowered due to snowpack melting due to warmer temperatures. Last year, Iowans were struck with intense flooding down the Mississippi river, which affected several river communities. “As opposed to last year, when that snowpack up north in the headwaters built up and continued to build all the way through early April, they really haven't been able to keep snow up there this year,” Wilson said.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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