Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in Ne, SE Australia

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in Ne, SE Australia

24 February 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2024 anticipates that most anomalies in the region will diminish. However, intense surplus is expected to continue in the Yorke Peninsula, southern New South Wales, and Victoria. Deficits will persist in northern and southern Western Australia. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Northern Queensland, with the highest concentrations throughout central regions of the Yorke Peninsula.

  • Southeastern coastal regions of Victoria.

  • Central Northern Territory, primarily in regions near the town of Mataranka. 

  • Northern New Zealand, widespread in areas along the eastern coast of the country, near the Raukumara region.   

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Northern regions of Western Australia, widespread in areas near and surrounding the King Leopold Ranges.

  • Southwestern coastal regions of Western Australia, near the town of Pemberton. 

  • Western Tasmania, across most of the region. 

  • Southern New Zealand, near the city of Dunedin. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2024 indicates that severe to extreme surplus will continue in the Yorke Peninsula, as well as in north-central areas of the Northern Territory. Some southeastern coastal regions of Victoria can expect moderate surplus. Severe to extreme deficit is expected to linger in Tasmania, primarily in northwestern and northeastern coastal regions. 

From May through July 2024, surplus is expected to persist in the Yorke Peninsula and southeastern Australia. Surpluses are expected to emerge in Northeastern New Zealand.

The forecast for the final months – August 2024 through October 2024 – anticipates exceptional deficits to appear in northern regions of Western Australia, and eastern coastal regions of the Northern Territory. Severe to extreme surplus is expected to expand significantly in southeastern regions of the country, throughout Victoria and New South Wales. Severe to extreme surplus is expected to continue in the Yorke Peninsula, with some transitional conditions also appearing in the same area.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Insurance Council of Australia urged the Australian Government to allocate a sustained annual fund of $250 million to assist in increasing flood resilience in high-risk areas. The council intends to use the funds to acquire and elevate residences in areas at high risk of flooding, as well as to assist in relocation of roughly 750 families from flood-prone regions. The ICA suggested that the fund should be matched by states and territories, which totals to a yearly amount of $500 million. This initiative is an extension of programs created in New South Wales and Queensland put in place after the destructive floods of 2022. 

Australia recorded its eighth warmest year in 2023, noting the influence of climate change increasing average temperatures by 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit above the 1961-1990 average. The extreme changes in weather patterns that appeared last year ranged from widespread flooding and the coldest January since 2002, to the hottest winter and spring in the southern hemisphere. Australia also reported the driest three months on record in 2023. Forecasters warn that climate change will worsen average temperatures and extreme weather events in Australia. "Climate change continues to influence Australia's climate," stated representatives of the Bureau of Meteorology.

More temperature records were broken in Western Australia as the city of Perch exceeded its previous record for the most consecutive days in February above 104 degrees Fahrenheit. Temperatures peaked at over 107 degrees Fahrenheit on February 15th, totalling 5 days over above 104 degrees. The previous record of four days had been reached twice, once in 1985 and the other in 2016. This record is expected to be broken again by the end of February, as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology anticipates temperatures to reach higher numbers in the coming weeks. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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