Canada: Exceptional deficits persist throughout most provinces

Canada: exceptional deficits persist throughout most provinces

24 February 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2024 shows some improvement, but exceptional deficits will persist in many regions of Canada.  

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Central and northeastern British Columbia, throughout the Bulkley-Nechako regional district, as well as the Northern Rockies territory. These deficits continue into northern and western Alberta. 

  • Central to northern Saskatchewan, appearing in most regions south of Lake Athabasca and north of Wapawekka Lake, continuing into western Manitoba in regions northwest of Lake Winnipeg. 

  • Southwestern to northeastern Ontario, stretching through most regions north of Lake Superior. Coastal regions of Quebec bordering the Hudson Bay can expect similarly intense deficits. 

  • Northern Yukon, in regions east of Vuntut National Park. Nearby, Northwest Territories can expect similarly intense deficits in areas surrounding Great Bear Lake and southeast of Great Slave Lake. 

  • Nunavut, in the central areas of the Kivalliq and Kitikmeot regions. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Nunavut, throughout the majority of Baffin Island. 

  • Southwestern Yukon, in regions west of the city of Whitehorse. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2024 indicates that moderate to severe surpluses will appear throughout much of British Columbia, though central and northeastern regions can still anticipate exceptional deficits. These deficits continue into northern Alberta, central to southeastern Saskatchewan, and western regions of Manitoba. Exceptional deficits are also expected to continue in western Manitoba, in regions northwest of Lake Winnipeg, as well as across southern to northeastern Ontario. Western coastal regions of Quebec are expected to observe continued exceptional deficits with some transitional conditions. Surpluses will emerge across western, central, and eastern regions of Quebec. Northern regions of Yukon are forecast to endure exceptional deficit, which continues southeast into regions near Great Slave Lake in Northwest Territories. Nunavut’s Kivalliq and Kitikmeot regions are expected to endure similarly intense deficits. Further north, Baffin Island and regions north of Southampton Island should anticipate extreme to exceptional surpluses. 

From May through July 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to persist in central and northeastern British Columbia, northern Alberta, central to northern Saskatchewan, and western Manitoba. Extreme to exceptional deficit is expected to emerge in south-central regions of British Columbia. Similarly intense deficits spanning southern to northeastern Ontario are also expected to continue. Further north, deficits in Northwest Territories in areas surrounding Great Bear Lake and regions southeast of Great Slave Lake are expected to persist. Similarly, Nunavut’s Kivalliq and Kitikmeot regions can expect exceptional deficits to linger. Surpluses in southwestern Yukon and Baffin Island are expected to remain. 

The forecast for the final months – August 2024 through October 2024 – indicates that widespread exceptional deficits in western to central provinces to somewhat diminish, but remain in central and northeastern British Columbia, northern Alberta, central Saskatchewan, and western Manitoba. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to occur throughout Northwestern Territories, southern to northern Nunavut, Ontario, and Quebec. Intense surpluses are expected to continue in Baffin Island.  

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.
IMPACTS
The British Columbia Energy Regulator recently reported concerns of potential water shortages in the province. Shortages are anticipated due to the impact of last summer’s drought, which has diminished snowpack levels to 72 percent of their historical average. Additionally, the previous summer’s drought had lasting effects on current levels of groundwater and stream flows, worsening overall conditions in the province. "The combined impact of these events has created an increased potential for drought conditions in 2024 and another summer of possibly limited water supply in the north,” the report stated. The northeast of the province, where much of B.C.'s oil and gas production is concentrated, has been hit hardest by the drought. 

As below average snowpack was reported, personnel at B.C. Hydro also reported concerns over another year of severe drought in key watersheds for its dams. “This is towards the worst end of what we’ve seen historically,” CEO Chris O’Riley said in a recent statement. In a bulletin posted by the B.C. River Forecast Center, snowpack levels in B.C. Hydro’s main reservoirs were as low as 40 percent below normal – lower than the snowpack at the same time last year, which preceded last summer’s severe drought. In Hydro’s last fiscal year, the company imported nearly one-fifth of the province’s needs, which cost $500 million. 
Communities across Alberta have started collaborating to find solutions for the impending drought expected to hit the province in the coming months. Irrigation reservoirs in southern Alberta are currently 50% below normal historic levels, with regional snowpack levels also at low levels. Plans for coping with drought were discussed at the first meeting of the Mountain View Regional Water Services convention, which opted for a collaborative agreement between communities rather than instating water restrictions. Agreements are expected to be in place by the end of March.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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