ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List April 2024

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST April 2024

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in January 2023 and running through December 2024 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List April 15, 2023 (pdf).

United States:  Intense deficits are expected to continue within the Upper Midwest until June 2024 or longer.

Canada: Exceptional deficits are anticipated to cover most of the Prairie Provinces until December 2024 or longer.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean:  Northwestern Mexico is expected to observe persisting deficits of varying intensity until September 2024 or longer.

South America: Brazil and eastern regions of the Bolivarian Nations are expected to persist until September 2024 or longer.

Europe:  Surpluses are expected to persist in western and central Europe, as well as the British Isles, until June 2024 or longer.

Africa: Regions within the Sahel are expected to observe emerging surpluses near June 2024, which are expected to remain until December 2024 or longer.

Middle East: Southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman are anticipated to endure exceptional deficits until June 2024 or longer.

Central Asia and Russia: Intense surplus in southwestern Russia and northern Kazakhstan is expected to continue until December 2024 or longer.

South Asia: Widespread surplus is expected to emerge in India around July 2024, which will continue into December 2024 or longer.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses of varying intensity are expected to continue in Maritime Southeast Asia throughout December 2024 or longer.  

East Asia: Surplus is expected to remain widespread throughout southwestern China until June 2024 or longer.

Australia & New Zealand: Northern Australia is forecast to endure intense surplus continuing until June 2024 or longer.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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