South America: Intense deficits continue throughout Brazil, Bolivarian Nations

South America: Intense deficits continue throughout Brazil, Bolivarian Nations

25 April 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to remain widespread throughout Brazil, as well as in pockets throughout the Bolivarian Nations. Some surplus is expected to intensify in eastern coastal regions of Brazil. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Guianas, throughout most of the region. 

  • Southern Venezuela, widespread across the state of Amazonas. These anomalies continue into northeastern Colombia in regions nearby El Tuparro National Park.

  • Brazil, covering most states within the country. The highest concentrations are anticipated in the states of Amazonas, Acre, northwestern Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Parana. These deficits are expected to continue into Uruguay, covering the majority of the country. 

  • Eastern Peru, throughout regions of the Peruvian Amazon.

  • Northern Chile, throughout the regions of Antofagasta, Tarapacá, and Arica y Parinacota. Similarly deficits are expected in northwestern and south-central Argentina, in the Catamarca, La Rioja, San Juan, and Chubut provinces.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Eastern Brazil, in coastal regions of the states of Rio Grande do Norte, Espirito Santo, and Rio De Janeiro, as well as eastern portions of the state of Minas Gerais. 

  • Southern Peru, in areas near the city of Cusco.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits in northern and central South America will decrease in size, but persist in pockets throughout coastal regions of the Guianas, northeastern Colombia, and the Brazilian states of Para, Mato Grosso, and Mato Grosso de Sul. Exceptional deficits reappear nearby in northern to northeastern Bolivia, as well as in northern Chile and western to central Argentina. Surpluses are expected to continue in eastern Brazil, in the states of Rio Grande do Norte, Espirito Santo, and Rio De Janeiro. 

From July through September 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to expand in size in Brazil, mostly affecting southern states, including Acre, Rondonia, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso de Sul, Parana, and Rio Grande de Sul. Exceptional deficits also are expected to expand throughout northeastern to eastern Bolivia. Further south, regions along the border of northern Chile and northwestern Argentina are expected to observe exceptional deficits. Surplus is expected to continue in eastern Brazil, in Espirito Santo, Rio De Janeiro, and Rio Grande do Norte. 

The forecast for the final months – October 2024 through December 2024 – anticipates exceptional deficits in Brazil to mostly resolve, though some may persist in central regions of the state of Amazonas. Extreme to exceptional deficits will also continue in northern Guyana, northeastern coastal regions of Venezuela, and throughout Suriname. Similarly intense deficits will continue in eastern to southern Peru, which continue into northwestern and central Bolivia. Severe to extreme deficits may arise near the southern Chilean region of Los Ríos. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As record-breaking fires continue across the Brazilian state of Roraima, other Amazonian countries, including Guyana, Suriname, and Venezuela, also reported record breaking fires throughout the first quarter this year. Fires in Brazil’s Amazon increased by 152% in 2023, which rose from 13,477 in 2022 to 34,012 in 2023. The widespread flames are a result of drought which was exacerbated by climate change and worsened by El Niño. As of April 23rd, Brazil continues to lose significant portions of its primary forests. 

In Rio Grande do Sul, a record soybean harvest is expected to offset crop loss in west-central regions of the rest of Brazil, which has been hit with significant drought. Soybean production in Rio Grande do Sul is anticipated to produce 68% more crops this season than last, which would allow the state to regain the position of Brazil's second biggest soybean producer, just after Mato Grosso. Emater, another state crop agency, projected a record crop of 22.25 million metric tons – a 71.5% increase from last year.

On April 23rd, the Colombian government introduced a new incentive program to help cut consumption of electricity as drought persists in the country. The drought has stifled local hydroelectric plants and their overall, which brought officials to impose power cuts. The ministry of mines and energy stated that in the following weeks, additional fees would be charged to homes and businesses that exceed their average monthly electrical consumption for every extra kilowatt-hour used, while those who lessened their consumption would be rewarded with discounts.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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