United States: Deficits continue in the Upper Midwest

25 April 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2024 indicates that many exceptional deficits in the United States will diminish, though some will persist as anomalies of lesser intensity in the Upper Midwest and some regions of the South. Intense surplus is anticipated in some western states, as well as in most of Alaska and Puerto Rico.

Moderate to extreme deficits are expected in the following areas:

Western Minnesota, in regions near the White Earth Reservation.
Northeastern Wisconsin, near the Superior National Forest. Similar deficits are expected nearby in the Upper Peninsula region of Michigan.
Central Indiana, throughout regions near Indianapolis.
Southern Colorado, near the town of Pagosa Springs.
Northern Alaska, west of Prudhoe Bay.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Southwestern Oregon, throughout Coos County. Similar anomalies are expected in southern California in most regions near Santa Barbara.
Nevada, in regions near the Walker River Reservation, the city of Wells, and within Lincoln County. Southwestern Idaho can expect similar anomalies, near the Four Corners Reservoir.
Puerto Rico, widespread throughout the island.
Alaska, with the highest concentrations appearing across the Seward Peninsula.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The 12-month forecast ending in December 2024 indicates that many exceptional deficits in the United States will diminish, though some will persist as anomalies of lesser intensity in the Upper Midwest and some regions of the South. Intense surplus is anticipated in some western states, as well as in most of Alaska and Puerto Rico.

Moderate to extreme deficits are expected in the following areas:

Western Minnesota, in regions near the White Earth Reservation.
Northeastern Wisconsin, near the Superior National Forest. Similar deficits are expected nearby in the Upper Peninsula region of Michigan.
Central Indiana, throughout regions near Indianapolis.
Southern Colorado, near the town of Pagosa Springs.
Northern Alaska, west of Prudhoe Bay.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Southwestern Oregon, throughout Coos County. Similar anomalies are expected in southern California in most regions near Santa Barbara.
Nevada, in regions near the Walker River Reservation, the city of Wells, and within Lincoln County. Southwestern Idaho can expect similar anomalies, near the Four Corners Reservoir.
Puerto Rico, widespread throughout the island.
Alaska, with the highest concentrations appearing across the Seward Peninsula.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2024 anticipates deficits in the Upper Midwest to worsen, particularly in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. These deficits spread further west into northeastern North Dakota. In Montana, Sanders County is expected to observe moderate to severe deficits. Southern California, Nevada, and southern Florida should anticipate surpluses ranging in intensity from moderate to extreme. Alaska is expected to experience widespread surpluses, as are the western regions of Puerto Rico.

From July through September 2024, surplus is expected to continue in southern California, as well as in Nevada. Deficits are expected to lessen in intensity in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan, becoming mostly moderate to severe anomalies. In Alaska, surplus is expected to diminish significantly across the state, but still remain in the Seward Peninsula. Puerto Rico will continue to observe widespread moderate to severe surplus.

The forecast for the final months – October 2024 through December 2024 – anticipates mostly abnormal deficits across much of the Continental U.S., though intense deficits are anticipated in central Texas, central to southern Louisiana, southwestern Mississippi, and southern Wisconsin. Some eastern regions of northeastern states can expect deficits of lesser intensity, primarily Maine and Massachusetts. Moderate to severe surplus is expected to linger in southern California and Nevada. Surplus will continue in Puerto Rico, but dissipate in Alaska. Deficits are expected to intensify and broaden in northern Alaska.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Communities of the Shenandoah Valley suffered through intense dry conditions this summer. Mark Frondorf, the Riverkeeper of the Shenandoah River for the Potomac Riverkeeper Network, stated that compared to data collected in the area over the last 130 years, the counties that depend on the Shenandoah River were experiencing major water shortages. Clarke County, Virginia had its fifth driest year on record, and Rockingham County, the largest agricultural county in the Commonwealth, recorded its eighth driest year. Frondorf said he anticipates the summer of 2024 to hold even more severe water shortages.

Though earlier warnings of an early season snow drought were announced earlier this month, storms have begun replenishing snowpack in the Sierra Nevada in recent weeks. Throughout California, snowpack levels are nearly 49% of average for this time of year, which shows significant improvement of conditions at the beginning of January, when snowpack was 28% of the average. California depends on spring and summer snowmelt from snowpack for almost a third of the state’s total supply of water. A lack of sufficient snowpack can also lead to drier forests, putting them at risk for fires.

Despite flooding from recent, intense rainstorms, regions of Maui County are still experiencing major drought. The driest portion of the county is reportedly Valley Isle, and experts anticipate that the dry conditions will likely continue into spring. West Maui and the Upcountry region have experienced water shortages since June, which have led to regional restrictions on water usage. On January 9th, rainfall levels ranged from 2 to 6 inches across most of the Valley Isle, with higher levels being recorded in upper Kula and the West Maui mountains. Even after the deluge, nearly 40% of Maui County remains in moderate or severe drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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