East Asia: Deficits in NW, S China to persist

East Asia: Deficits in NW, S China to persist

27 May 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in January 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will linger in northwestern and southern China. Surpluses will persist in southwestern and southeastern China. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Western China, appearing in western Inner Mongolia, western to central Gansu, and eastern Xinjiang.  

  • Southern China, in central Yunnan. 

  • Northeastern China, throughout southern Heilongjiang, Lionang, and Jilin. 

  • Northern portions of North Korea, specifically in the North Hamgyong Province. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Western China, in isolated regions of eastern Tibet.

  • Eastern China, in central Shandong. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to emerge in northwestern China, particularly in central to eastern regions of Xinjiang. To the west, severe to extreme surplus is expected in eastern areas of Tibet and western Qinghai. Similar anomalies will appear in southeastern China, in Hunan. In southern China, isolated areas of northern and southern Yunnan can anticipate exceptional deficits. 

From August through October 2024, deficits in northwestern China are expected to mostly dissipate, with few pockets of severe to extreme deficits occurring in central to eastern Xinjiang. Surpluses of moderate to severe intensity will resolve in regions within Tibet, but reappear in central areas of Shandong. Most other regions of China will observe normal to abnormal conditions. 

The forecast for the final months – November 2024 through January 2025 – anticipates normal to abnormal conditions to continue throughout China. Some instances of moderate surplus are anticipated to continue in central Shandong. Isolated pockets of surplus may appear in east Tibet and western Qinghai.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A recent report found that 30% of global electricity was generated from renewable sources last year. China specifically added more renewable energy than any other country, with 51% of newly generated power and 60% from developing and exporting new wind power technologies. China, the European Union, the United States and Brazil together accounted for 81% of new solar generation in 2023. However, China was also responsible for 55% of coal generation globally and 60% of China's electricity generation came from coal, the most carbon-emittent of fossil fuel

China’s National Climate Center reported that the prolonged onset of El Nino has increased the frequency of extreme weather events. "The National Climate Center's monitoring data reveals that the warm sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has been steadily decreasing since April, indicating that the El Nino phenomenon has entered a sustained phase of decline," said Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the center. Jia explained, saying that the ocean's influence on climate demonstrates a delayed effect. 
Unpredictable rainfall in the southwestern Chinese province of Yunnan is stifling a multibillion dollar incentive to implement greener methodologies in the aluminum industry, which accounts for almost 60% of global output. Yunnan's rivers and reservoirs have started to dwindle amid insufficient rainfall, jeopardizing the campaign as the water supply becomes less reliable. Some experts have attributed the shift to climate change. At the industry’s current state, it is estimated to emit more carbon dioxide than Australia.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.