Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surplus continues throughout maritime sE Asia

24 June 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast indicates that intense surpluses will continue throughout Maritime Southeast Asia, while exceptional deficits will remain in several areas of Mainland Southeast Asia.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Indonesia, in northern coastal regions of northern Sumatra, western to northern Kalimantan, and the Lesser Sunda Islands.
Malaysia, in coastal regions near the city of Kuala Lumpur.
Papua, with the most intense anomalies appearing in the Merauke and Paniai regencies.
Papua New Guinea, in southern coastal regions of the Western Province, and in areas further east, in the Oro Province, near the city of Popondetta.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Northern Laos, appearing in several pockets throughout the country. The most intense anomalies appear within the Phongsaly Province, as well as eastern regions of the Nakai-Nam Theun National Park and Savannakhet Province.
Vietnam, primarily within the North Central Coast region.
Southern Thailand, in northern regions of the Malay Peninsula.
Cambodia, in areas south of the Tonle Sap.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2024 anticipates intense, concentrated surplus anomalies to appear in Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in northern Sumatra, western Kalimantan, and southern coastal regions of Papua and Papua New Guinea. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to appear across the island of Java. In Mainland Southeast Asia, moderate to severe surpluses are expected to occur in southern provinces of Myanmar, particularly the Yangon and Ayeyarwady regions.

From September through November 2024, most intense anomalies are expected to dissipate from Mainland Southeast Asia. Surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia are expected to downgrade into abnormal anomalies, though some moderate surpluses are expected to occur in northwestern and southern areas of Papua, as well as southern coastal regions of Papua New Guinea.

The forecast for the final months – December 2024 through February 2025 – expects mostly normal to abnormal surpluses to persist throughout Maritime Southeast Asia, while much of Mainland Southeast Asia can anticipate near-normal to abnormal deficits.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On June 1st, a volcano in Indonesia's eastern island of Halmahera erupted, spawning risks of flash flooding and cold lava flow. Indonesia's disaster management agency BNPB warned local authorities to expect these secondary disasters, and that the nation's meteorology agency expects there to be potential for moderate to heavy rainfall in the near future. "If there is a buildup of material left over from the eruption, it should be cleaned up immediately because it is dangerous. If there is heavy rain, flash floods could occur, cause damage and many fatalities," Suharyanto, the chief of BNPB, said in a statement.

Cases of dengue fever and related deaths have risen significantly in Indonesia, with experts attributing the outbreak to rising temperatures related to climate change. Roughly 62,000 cases have been reported with 475 deaths ranging from January to mid-April, which is almost triple the 22,500 cases and 170 deaths during the same time last year. Health experts identify the hot weather induced by the El Nino climate pattern as one of the primary drivers of this surge. The warmer rainy season has accelerated the life cycle of mosquitoes, enabling them to mature rapidly and prolong their lifespan. The Health Ministry emphasizes that the most effective approach to mitigating the outbreak lies in regular water source drainage, proper covering of water containers, and the elimination of potential mosquito breeding grounds through recycling initiatives.

El Nino has affected Vietnam’s coffee crop output due to high temperatures and reduced rainfall. Vietnam, the world's second-largest coffee exporter, has expanded their planting areas in recent years, but still faces extreme weather. In the Gia Lai province, the only option local farmers have to mitigate weather complications is to increase irrigation, which has little effect. Experts noted that Vietnamese coffee strains are particularly sensitive to temperature and volatile weather. These conditions have also affected the region’s production of peppers, avocados, and durians. "Because of the drought and little rain this year, the coffee production is likely to drop by about 30 percent from normal years. My coffee plantation usually produces six tons of coffee beans each year, sometimes even eight tons. But this year it might be only four to five tons,” said local coffee farmer Nguyen Van Hoa.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags