South America: Brazil, Bolivarian Nations to observe continued deficits

South America: Brazil, Bolivarian Nations to observe continued deficits

23 July 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in March 2025 indicates that widespread exceptional deficits will diminish across a significant portion of South America, though will still remain in some regions of Brazil and the Bolivarian Nations.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following areas: 

  • Northern coastal regions of Venezuela, near the city of Valencia.

  • Western Brazil, throughout the states of Acre, Rondonia, and southern to western portions of Amazonas. These deficits continue into eastern Peru and northern to eastern Bolivia. 

  • Southern Brazil, throughout the states of Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, southern Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro. These deficits spread further south into northeastern Paraguay. 

  • Northwestern Argentina, across western regions of the Catamarca, La Rioja, Salta, and San Juan provinces. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • Southern Brazil, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

  • Northeastern Uruguay, near the Mirim Lagoon.

Transitional conditions will appear in: 

  • Central Guyana, within the region of Potaro-Siparuni. 

  • Northern Brazil, in coastal regions of the states of Amapa and Para. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue throughout the majority of Brazil. Several other South American regions should anticipate exceptional deficits to linger, including central to southern Peru, northern to central Bolivia, and central Paraguay. Regions along the border of northwestern Argentina and northern Chile can expect exceptional deficits to continue. Eastern coastal regions of the state of Bahia can expect severe to extreme surpluses to endure. 

From October through December 2024, most exceptional deficits are expected to diminish in Peru, though some will remain in pockets of eastern portions of the country. Exceptional deficits in Brazil are expected to resolve, though some areas of northwestern Brazil are expected to observe deficits of moderate to severe intensity. Deficits are expected to linger along northern coastal regions of the Guianas. 

The forecast for the final months – January 2025 through March 2025 – anticipates that most countries will observe near-normal conditions and abnormal anomalies. Northeastern Argentina can expect small pockets of moderate deficits, as well as southern Brazil.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Experts stated that the drought continuing in the Brazilian Amazon has the potential to be worse than 2023’s historic drought, as many Amazonian states are already observing early drought signs. Currently, rivers in the region are at lower levels than they were during 2023’s flood season. The Negro River reached 83 feet in early May, which is roughly 6 feet and 12 feet lower than the last three years. In June, the Madeira River recorded its lowest level of the year so far, recessing 13.6 feet. Also in June 82 cities were affected by categorically “extreme” drought, with 735 experiencing severe drought – an increase in 2023’s reports of one city facing extreme drought during the season and 44 facing a severe drought. 

Companies in Brazil’s Manaus port have implemented a “low water surcharge” as the region endures its worst drought in a decade. Carrier company MSC recently established a surcharge of $5,000 per container effective August 1st, which is expected to continue until water levels return to normal. Routes that will be affected by the surcharge are arrivals and departures from Manaus and the United States, as well as Canada, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, and western and eastern areas of South America.
Brazilian coffee growers managed to continue harvesting crops for the 2024/25 season at an accelerated pace, reaching an estimated 74% of the crop yield on July 16th. This is due to increased precipitation in some agricultural regions of Brazil, and is ultimately decreasing coffee prices. The pace exceeds the 66% harvested during the same time last year, and is above the five-year seasonal average of 70%.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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