Canada: Prairie provinces, NW Territories, Nunavut endure exceptional deficits

26 August 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in April 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in the Prairie Provinces, as well as in regions of Northwest Territories and Nunavut. Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast in Quebec and southern to central Nunavut.

Exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following provinces:

Central to northeastern British Columbia, in areas southwest and northeast of Williston Lake, which continues into northeastern Alberta, throughout Mackenzie County.
Central Saskatchewan, throughout most of western to central regions of the province’s boreal forest.
Northwest Territories, widespread in areas south and east of Great Bear Lake.
Eastern Quebec, throughout areas near Le Golfe-du-Saint-Laurent and throughout Anticosti Island. Exceptional deficits are also expected to emerge in eastern Newfoundland.
Southern and western Nunavut, throughout the Kitikmeot and Kivalliq regions.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

Southwestern Saskatchewan, in regions west of the city of Saskatoon.
Quebec, in most areas surrounding the region of Eeyou Istchee.
Southern Nunavut, in the southwesternmost portions of the Kivalliq Region.
Nunavut, southern coastal regions of Kimmirut Inuit Owned Land in Baffin Island. Exceptional surplus is also anticipated in northern coastal regions of the Pond Inlet Inuit Owned Land.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2024 predicts that exceptional deficits will endure in central and northeastern British Columbia, northwestern and south-central Alberta, and central Saskatchewan. Exceptional deficits will continue in Northwest Territories, in regions south and east of Great Bear Lake. Western areas of Nunavut’s Kitikmeot region and southern portions of the Kivalliq region can also expect exceptional deficits to persist. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to remain in northern and southern coastal regions of Nunavut’s Baffin Island.

From November through January 2025, exceptional deficits will persist in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, and central Saskatchewan. Deficits will continue in Northwestern Territories, but lessen in size, remaining mostly in regions south of Great Bear Lake. Western regions of Nunavut’s Kitikmeot region can expect exceptional deficits to linger.

The forecast for the final months – February 2025 through April 2025, predicts that exceptional deficits will remain present in pockets of northeastern British Columbia and northwestern Alberta. Central regions of Saskatchewan can expect deficits to continue, as well as areas in Northwest Territories south of Great Bear Lake, and in western Nunavut. Moderate surpluses may continue in coastal regions of central Nunavut.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The salmon population in British Columbia is currently at risk due to drought and low precipitation levels. As salmon need cool, fresh water to safely migrate to their spawning grounds, conditions stemming from last year’s devastating wildfire season have impacted water quality and lowered levels in key regions of the province. Murray Manson, the section head of the Fisheries Department’s Habitat Restoration Centre of Expertise, recently reported that fish are expected to appear in some low-water areas, including the Fraser River basin. “They’re still swimming into the drought conditions which exist upstream,” said Manson regarding the salmon. ”(But) it’s early. Things are still developing.”

The risk of water shortages remain high in southern Alberta as the Milk and Oldman river systems stay categorized by authorities as experiencing “stage 4 drought.” The forecast for August expects levels well below average to continue through September in several river systems, including the Bow, Oldman, South Saskatchewan, and Milk. The South Saskatchewan River at Medicine Hat is also reporting lower than normal flow levels after a more drastic dip reported in early August. A recent press release stated that “Drought classifications will be updated as needed based on the weather conditions, water supply and demand,” and “regardless of drought stage, all Albertans are encouraged to consider ways to use water wisely.”

Beef farmers in Saskatchewan recently saw rainfall in the midst of a three-year drought. “Early spring rains created grass that we haven’t seen for three to five years, maybe even up to seven years in some parts of the province, and because of that, the pressure is alleviated,” said local feed producer Kurtis Reid. This rain comes after a long period of drought in the prairie region, which forced farmers to find new alternative feed sources, learn new agricultural methods, and strictly ration feed inventories. Last year was especially difficult, as livestock reacted to several years of low rations. Higher rates of beef cows did not occur in 2023 as farmers hoped, which is attributed to the third year of drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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