Central Asia & Russia: Exceptional deficits in N, NW, and SE Russia persist

Central Asia & Russia: Exceptional deficits in N, NW, and SE Russia persist

25 October 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in June 2025 indicates that severe to extreme surpluses will continue in northern Kazakhstan. Exceptional deficits will continue primarily in regions of northern, northwestern, and southeastern Russia. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Northern Russia, in coastal regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District. 

  • Northwestern Russia, in eastern regions of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and northern coastal regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

  • Southeastern Russia, in areas surrounding Lake Baikal, primarily in northern areas of Buryatia, northern and southeastern Irkutsk Oblast, and southwestern areas of the Sakha Republic. 

  • Western Russia, in the Arkhangelsk Oblast and the Komi Republic. 

Severe to extreme surpluses are expected in: 

  • Eastern Russia, in southern areas of the Sakha Republic. 

  • Northern Kazakhstan, in much of the North Kazakhstan Region.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2024 indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will continue in northern, northwestern, and southeastern Kazakhstan. Exceptional deficits are expected to be present in pockets of European Russia, northern coastal regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and areas east of Lake Baikal. 

From January through March 2025, exceptional deficits will continue in areas near the city of Tyumen, eastern regions of the Sverdlovsk Oblast, and in southern portions of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. Northern coastal regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug can expect severe to extreme deficits to persist. Exceptional deficits are expected to be widespread in areas east of Lake Baikal. Moderate to severe surpluses will continue in southern areas of the Tyumen Oblast, southern portions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, northern sections of Kazakhstan. 

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2025 – extreme to exceptional deficits may continue in northern coastal regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, as well as in areas east of Lake Baikal. Moderate to severe surpluses may continue in western portions of the Sakha Republic, as well as northern Kazakhstan and Russia’s Tyumen and Omsk Oblasts. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Russian republic of Kalmykia declared a regional state of emergency due to drought affecting soil in agricultural areas. The state of emergency was announced by Batu Khasikov, head of the republic. "I am receiving requests from our farmers about difficulties in preparing for winter and preparing forage," Khasikov wrote, adding that soil drought has affected nine municipalities. He promised to improve accessibility to local irrigation canals to assist the continuation of production.

Officials in the Voronezh region continue to report significant crop losses due to drought. As of October 11th, crops in over 100 thousand hectares of agricultural land have been lost, including corn, grain, millet, buckwheat, sugar beets, and sunflowers. Authorities declared a state of emergency for the region at the end of September and compensated farmers for losses through insurance companies. 

Prices in the Russian wheat market have reached their highest price since late June as drought continues to affect crops. Prices rose as much as 4.3% in early October. Several key agricultural regions have been affected by frosts and drought since early May, which hindered wheat production for the 2024-2025 season. Russia is estimated to harvest 82.1 million metric tons of wheat in 2024-2025 while exporting 47 million metric tons. Experts anticipate that the drought is likely to impact the next winter planting for the 2025-2026 season. "The market is only going up," said one Russian seller. "This is a dangerous situation for the crop's next season.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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