South Asia: Surplus persists in North-central, south-central India

South Asia: Surplus persists in North-central, south-central India

22 November 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending in July 2025 indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in north-central and south-central regions of India. Exceptional surpluses are expected to emerge in eastern regions of the country, and in some areas of Nepal and Bangladesh. Extreme to exceptional deficits will expand in Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • South-central India, in central regions of the state of Karnataka. 

  • North-central India, in central and eastern regions of Rajasthan. 

  • Eastern India, in regions of Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh. These anomalies will continue east into southwestern Bangladesh. 

  • Nepal, in areas along the country’s northern border.

  • Pakistan, in regions along the southern reaches of the Indus River. 

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Southern Afghanistan, in southern regions of the Chahar Burjak District. 

  • Southwestern Pakistan, in areas north of Hanna Lake. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2025 predicts that exceptional deficits will emerge in western India and southeastern Pakistan. Extreme surpluses are expected to linger in north-central, southern, and eastern India, as well as throughout much of Nepal. Western regions of Bangladesh can anticipate exceptional surpluses. Further north, regions of northern Afghanistan, near the Samangan region, can expect isolated severe to extreme surpluses. 

From February through April 2025, exceptional deficits in western India and southeastern Pakistan are expected to dissipate. Extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in north-central India, as well as in isolated portions of southwestern and eastern regions. Areas along the southern border of Nepal can expect severe to extreme surpluses to persist. 

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2025 – extreme and exceptional surpluses in India are expected to downgrade, becoming moderate surpluses that appear in southeastern, central, and eastern areas of the country. These surpluses will also continue in Bangladesh. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Bangladesh recently experienced severe flooding that killed at least 75 people and destroyed the equivalent of $380 million in agricultural produce. The figure includes 1.1 million metric tons of rice, as well as more than 200,000 tons of vegetables. To combat food scarcity and price increases, the government plans to import 500,000 tons of rice and permit private imports, as food prices have risen by 20% in recent months.

A recent report predicts that the increase of droughts and flooding in India will notably impact its economy, public health, and food security. The report, titled Climate Change Projections for India (2021-2040), was released by Azim Premji University, and aims to assist policymakers and organizations in addressing climate challenges and increasing resilience in vulnerable communities. Experts emphasized the need to develop crops that can withstand extreme weather to ensure food security and help farmers adapt to worsening climate conditions.

In late September, Nepal experienced its worst flooding in decades, as rainfall inundated Kathmandu and nearby regions, killing at least 244 people and causing the equivalent of almost $95 million in damage. Subsequent landslides which were triggered by the floods caused an additional $18.4 million in damage. A study conducted by the World Weather Attribution linked the flooding to climate change, noting that a warmer world has increased the intensity of rainfall by 10%, and the likelihood of extreme weather events by 70%.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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