Canada: Deficits remain in Canadian Shield, Atlantic regions

23 November 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending in July 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain widespread in several areas of the Canadian Shield and Atlantic regions. Exceptional surplus is anticipated in much of the Arctic Region.

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in:

Northeastern British Columbia, throughout most of the Northern Rockies region. These deficits continue into Mackenzie County in northwestern Alberta.
Central Saskatchewan, throughout the Boreal Shield region, continuing east into northern Manitoba, in areas near Split Lake and Wapusk National Park.
Northern coastal regions of Ontario along the Hudson Bay. These deficits continue southwest into the Unorganized Kenora District and in regions north of Lake Superior.
Quebec, across northern and eastern regions of the Nord-du-Québec region and around Lake Perroche. These deficits are also anticipated in the Côte-Nord region, and in much of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Northwest Territories, primarily in areas south of Great Bear Lake and west of Great Slave Lake. These anomalies continue into northern areas of Yukon and into the Kitikmeot region of Nunavut.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Southwestern Saskatchewan, near Kiyiu Lake.
Nunavut, with the most intense anomalies appearing along northeastern coastal regions of Baffin Island.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2025 predicts that exceptional deficits will persist in most areas south of Great Bear Lake in Northwest Territories, which continue south into northeastern British Columbia and northwestern Alberta. The Boreal Shield region of Saskatchewan will observe similar deficits, as will northwestern, northern, and southeastern Ontario. Regions near Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba will observe severe to extreme deficits. The Côte-Nord region of Quebec will observe widespread exceptional deficits, which will continue north into regions of Newfoundland and Labrador. Exceptional surpluses are anticipated in several regions of Nunavut, primarily in eastern coastal regions bordering the Northwestern Passages and along the northern coast of Baffin Island.

From February through April 2025, exceptional deficits will remain in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, and in regions south of Great Bear Lake in Northwest Territories. These deficits are also expected to linger in central Saskatchewan and central Manitoba. In Ontario, exceptional deficits will persist in regions along the coast of the Hudson Bay, Unorganized Kenora District, and in places north of Lake Superior. Areas surrounding the Caniapiscau Reservoir in Quebec will experience exceptional deficits. In Newfoundland, exceptional deficits will occur in areas near Lake Melville. Exceptional surplus will appear in eastern coastal regions of Nunavut which border the Northwestern Passages, as well as northern areas of Baffin Island.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2025 – indicates that exceptional deficits will remain in northeastern British Columbia and northwestern Alberta. Exceptional deficits may also persist in central Saskatchewan, and in coastal regions of Manitoba and Ontario bordering the Hudson Bay. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to continue in areas south of Great Bear Lake, as well as in western regions of Nunavut’s Kitikmeot Region. Moderate to severe surpluses will occur in Nunavut, primarily in central regions of the Kitikmeot region.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A powerful storm hit British Columbia on November 4th, which left 237,000 citizens without electricity due to strong winds and heavy rainfall. The following morning, roughly 15,000 customers remained without power in Vancouver Island, the Okanagan, and the Kootenay areas. The damage caused by the storm was worsened by drought, as the numerous downed trees were previously weakened due to prolonged dry conditions in the province.

Canada is importing electricity from the United States this year after exporting surplus hydropower for nearly two decades. The electricity deficit in Canada is due to prolonged droughts and extreme weather affecting several provinces, including Québec, British Columbia, and Manitoba. The complications also compound with rising energy demand due to digitization and reshoring of manufacturing. Nearly 62% of Canada’s power comes from hydroelectricity, and is the world’s third largest producer of hydroelectricity.

As the Ottawa area continues to observe drought, farmers expect the dry conditions to offset the surplus rainfall the region saw earlier this summer. "It's almost like a dual personality," said David Phillips, a climatologist with Environment Canada. "We had the big wet of summer, and now we have the big dry of fall." Phillips stated that the dry fall is a welcome change, as the wetness of the summer caused problems such as muddy fields and worsened difficulties for machine operation. According to the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's drought assessment in October, 67% of Canada's agricultural land is affected by the current drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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