Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near Lake Baikal

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near Lake Baikal

23 December 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending in August 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Southeastern Russia, in areas near throughout areas surrounding Lake Baikal, specifically northern Buryatia and western Zabaykalsky Krai. 

  • Northwestern Russia, in the northern coastal regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and across the Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

  • Western Russia, appearing in northern Tyumen Oblast and southern areas of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. 

  • Northern Russia, in northern coastal regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Northern Kazakhstan, throughout the North Kazakhstan Region, as well as in pockets across eastern areas of the country. 

  • Eastern Russia, near the Lena River.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2025 indicates that widespread exceptional deficits will persist in much of western Russia, northern Sakha Republic, northern Krasnoyarsk Krai, and in areas east of Lake Baikal. North-central Kazakhstan will also observe an emergence of exceptional deficits. Exceptional deficits will remain in southern and southeastern regions of Kazakhstan, as well as in areas further north near the Russian cities of Omsk and Chelyabinsk. These surpluses are also expected to continue in southern Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District.

From March through May 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to remain in significant portions of western Russia, in the Sverdlovsk Oblast and in the federal subject of Perm Krai. These deficits will also continue in areas east of Lake Baikal and in northern Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Widespread moderate to severe surpluses will continue in northern Kazakhstan, the Urals Federal District, and the Siberian Federal District. 

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2025 – indicates that northern Kazakhstan and areas of Russia near the cities of Omsk and Novosibirsk will observe isolated severe to extreme surpluses. Exceptional deficits are anticipated in northern regions of European Russia, as well as in regions east of Lake Baikal. Some northern regions of the Sakha Republic can expect deficits of similar intensity.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
38 percent of Russia’s winter crops are reportedly of poor health or unsprouted – a record high percentage. Only 31 percent of crops are in good condition, a significant decrease compared to last year’s 74 percent. These low yields mark the smallest amount of quality crops in nearly 25 years. The summer-autumn drought and lack of rainfall in primary agricultural areas between April to October devastated local agriculture. Regions such as Rostov and Volgograd report millions of hectares of unsprouted crops. The crisis could potentially worsen inflation in Russia, as prices of staple foods such as potatoes have already increased by 80 percent. 

Southern Russia faces significant agricultural challenges as winter crops continue to be affected by severe drought and rising costs of operation. Several areas have reported critical soil moisture deficits, with crop health varying across the regions. Costs for sowing have risen by 15-20% due to higher prices for seeds, fertilizers, fuel, and equipment. Farmers have voiced concern over financial sustainability as agricultural product prices remain stagnant. 

Head of the Republic of Crimea Sergey Aksyonov recently announced plans to increase drought resilience by improving design work for the Martovskoye and Schastlivnoye reservoirs, as well as construct a new reservoir. These projects are expected to begin next year and are expected to cost approximately 40 billion rubles. According to Aksyonov, Crimea’s current reserves ensure adequate supply for the next 1.5 to 2 years, even without more precipitation. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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