Middle East: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Oman to endure deficits

Middle East: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Oman to endure deficits

27 January 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in September 2025 indicates that widespread exceptional deficits in the Middle East will resolve in some areas, but remain in some portions of Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Iran. Moderate to severe surplus is anticipated in some coastal regions along the Red Sea. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Saudi Arabia, throughout areas within the Najd region. 

  • Oman, in the Al Wusta and Ad Dakhiliyah governorates, continuing into western areas of the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. 

  • Much of the West Bank, continuing into isolated areas of northern and southern Israel. 

  • Eastern Jordan, in the Rwaished District, spreading into remote portions of western, central, and eastern Iraq. Exceptional deficits are also anticipated throughout much of Iran. 

  • Western coastal regions of Turkey. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Southwestern coastal regions of Saudi Arabia, in regions south of the city of Jeddah. 

  • Yemen, in most areas along its western coast.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2025 expects exceptional deficits in Saudi Arabia and Yemen to resolve, becoming mostly abnormal deficits. Exceptional deficits may arise in northeastern Oman in areas of the Ash Sharqiyah regions. Exceptional deficits will arise in northern and southern coastal Iran. Exceptional deficits are expected to be widespread throughout Lebanon, while severe to extreme deficits are expected to occur in regions of southeastern Turkey, northern and southeastern Iraq, and western Jordan. Moderate to severe surpluses will arise in southwestern coastal Saudi Arabia and western coastal Yemen. 

From April through June 2025, exceptional deficits will spread further throughout central and north-central Oman. Isolated regions of south-central Iraq, as well as east-central and northern Saudi Arabia, will also observe exceptional deficits. Northern and southern coastal regions of Iran will observe severe deficits. 

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2025 – indicates that extreme to exceptional deficits may arise in central Saudi Arabia, as well as west-central, east-central, and northern coastal Iran. Moderate to severe surpluses may emerge in southwestern Saudi Arabia and western Yemen. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Iraq continues to face a severe climate crisis as the country continues to experience rising temperatures, lack of rainfall, and degradation of soil. Unlike its wealthier neighbors that use desalination and hydroponics technologies to combat water scarcity, Iraq lacks the appropriate infrastructure and resources needed to maintain climate resilience. Over the past 40 years, water from the Tigris and Euphrates, which account for 98% of Iraq's surface water, has dropped by 30-40% due to the arid conditions. This has exacerbated saltwater intrusion and damaged farmland. If these trends continue, Iraq is expected to face a major water deficit by 2035.

The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the UN Convention on Combating Desertification (UNCCD) was recently held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The conference brought top authorities together to focus on addressing drought, land degradation, and climate change. During the conference, experts shared that 40% of the Earth’s land is degraded, which impacts half of humanity, as well as global GDP. Financial investments which exceed $12 billion were announced to support 80 countries affected by drought, as well as the release of the Economics of Drought report, which warns that three-quarters of the global population could face drought risks by 2050. 

Authorities in southwestern Iran recently canceled all music events after cleric Abdolhossein Ghobishavi blamed concerts for the lack of rain. This decision defies orders from President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration, which prohibits blocking music events. Since the Islamic Republic's establishment in 1979, music has been heavily restricted, with bans on state media, long permit processes for artists, and a prohibition on female singers performing.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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